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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Discount Rate | 12.5% - 11.5% | 12.0% |
| Terminal EBITDA Multiple | 4.1x - 6.1x | 5.1x |
| Fair Value | €1.02 - €5.11 | €3.02 |
| Upside | -77.4% - 13.5% | -32.9% |
| Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | ||||||
| (JPY in millions) | Input Projections | |||||
| Fiscal Years Ending | Mar-25 | Mar-26 | Mar-27 | Mar-28 | Mar-29 | Mar-30 |
| Revenue | 4,407,405 | 3,739,435 | 3,881,500 | 3,970,600 | 4,202,550 | 4,353,800 |
| % Growth | 0.5% | -15.2% | 3.8% | 2.3% | 5.8% | 3.6% |
| EBITDA | 579,140 | 498,200 | 549,550 | 573,600 | 679,700 | 725,650 |
| % of Revenue | 13.1% | 13.3% | 14.2% | 14.4% | 16.2% | 16.7% |
| Calculation of Free Cash Flow | ||||||
| Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | ||||||
| (JPY in millions) | Mar-26 | Mar-27 | Mar-28 | Mar-29 | Mar-30 | |
| EBITDA | 498,200 | 549,550 | 573,600 | 679,700 | 725,650 | |
| Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| D&A | (294,200) | (274,550) | (269,100) | (316,200) | (332,700) | |
| EBIT | 204,000 | 275,000 | 304,500 | 363,500 | 392,950 | |
| Pro forma Taxes | (55,080) | (74,250) | (82,215) | (98,145) | (106,097) | |
| NOPAT | 221,341 | 148,920 | 200,750 | 222,285 | 265,355 | 286,854 |
| Capital Expenditures | (314,533) | (299,533) | (359,443) | (364,842) | (400,000) | (475,000) |
| NWC Investment | (3,690) | 122,089 | (25,966) | (16,285) | (42,395) | (27,645) |
| (+) D&A | 275,933 | 294,200 | 274,550 | 269,100 | 316,200 | 332,700 |
| Free Cash Flow | 179,051 | 265,676 | 89,891 | 110,258 | 139,160 | 116,909 |
| % Growth | 48% | -66% | 23% | 26% | -16% | |