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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 22.9x - 25.3x | 24.1x |
Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 3.8x - 4.2x | 4.0x |
Fair Value | €3.84 - €4.19 | €4.02 |
Upside | -6.8% - 1.8% | -2.5% |
Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
Technical Publications Service S.p.A. | TPS | BIT:TPS |
Leonardo S.p.a. | LDO | BIT:LDO |
Avio S.p.A. | AVIO | BIT:AVIO |
Officina Stellare S.p.A. | OS | BIT:OS |
Rheinmetall AG | 1RHM | BIT:1RHM |
Porto Aviation Group S.p.A. | M2N | DB:M2N |
- | - | - |
Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
Benchmark Companies | |||||||
TPS | LDO | AVIO | OS | 1RHM | M2N | ||
BIT:TPS | BIT:LDO | BIT:AVIO | BIT:OS | BIT:1RHM | DB:M2N | ||
Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
5Y CAGR | 0.3% | 3.5% | -10.2% | 5.4% | 19.6% | NM- | |
3Y CAGR | -2.7% | 11.4% | -1.8% | 2.7% | 29.8% | 20.1% | |
Latest Twelve Months | 11.2% | 20.0% | 35.3% | -37.2% | 57.4% | -46.9% | |
Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
5 Year Average Margin | 16.2% | 9.7% | 5.4% | 31.9% | 14.3% | 1.3% | |
Prior Fiscal Year | 12.7% | 9.6% | 3.9% | 35.6% | 15.5% | 18.0% | |
Latest Fiscal Year | 13.0% | 10.5% | 3.7% | 19.1% | 18.0% | 7.8% | |
Latest Twelve Months | 13.0% | 10.3% | 3.7% | 19.1% | 17.5% | 7.8% | |
Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
EV / LTM Revenue | 0.65x | 1.69x | 1.25x | 5.25x | 7.68x | 2.23x | |
EV / LTM EBITDA | 5.0x | 16.5x | 33.5x | 27.5x | 43.8x | 28.4x | |
EV / LTM EBIT | 5.5x | 21.7x | 92.1x | 62.4x | 54.2x | 35.6x | |
Low | Mid | High | |||||
Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | 5.0x | 27.5x | 43.8x | ||||
Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | 20.8x | 24.6x | 28.4x | ||||
Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 22.9x | 24.1x | 25.3x | ||||
(x) LTM EBITDA | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||
(=) Implied Enterprise Value | 7 | 7 | 8 | ||||
(-) Non-shareholder Claims * | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
(=) Equity Value | 8 | 9 | 9 | ||||
(/) Shares Outstanding | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | ||||
Implied Value Range | 3.46 | 3.62 | 3.78 | ||||
FX Rate: EUR/EUR | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 3.46 | 3.62 | 3.78 | 4.12 | |||
Upside / (Downside) | -15.9% | -12.1% | -8.3% |
Equity Waterfall | |||||||
Benchmark Companies | |||||||
(in millions) | TPS | LDO | AVIO | OS | 1RHM | M2N | |
Enterprise Value | 34 | 30,924 | 602 | 102 | 80,140 | 9 | |
(+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 19 | 1,869 | 102 | 1 | 1,083 | 3 | |
(+) Investments & Other | 0 | 0 | 17 | 0 | 328 | 0 | |
(-) Debt | (2) | (4,206) | (12) | (13) | (1,704) | (1) | |
(-) Other Liabilities | (1) | (1,172) | (10) | (1) | (462) | 0 | |
(-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
(-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Value of Common Equity | 51 | 27,415 | 700 | 89 | 79,385 | 10 | |
(/) Shares Outstanding | 7.1 | 576.4 | 26.1 | 6.0 | 45.8 | 2.4 | |
Implied Stock Price | 7.15 | 47.56 | 26.85 | 14.70 | 1,734.50 | 4.12 | |
FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 7.15 | 47.56 | 26.85 | 14.70 | 1,734.50 | 4.12 | |
Trading Currency | EUR | EUR | EUR | EUR | EUR | EUR | |
FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |