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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Discount Rate | 10.8% - 9.8% | 10.3% |
Terminal Revenue Multiple | 1.2x - 1.4x | 1.3x |
Fair Value | €1.90 - €2.15 | €2.02 |
Upside | 50.8% - 70.8% | 60.5% |
Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | |||||||||||
(GBP in millions) | Input Projections | ||||||||||
Fiscal Years Ending | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
Revenue | 963 | 1,065 | 1,098 | 1,147 | 1,164 | 1,425 | 1,603 | 1,724 | 1,784 | 1,820 | 1,856 |
% Growth | 77.7% | 10.7% | 3.1% | 4.4% | 1.5% | 22.4% | 12.5% | 7.5% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
EBITDA | 147 | 250 | 264 | 279 | 300 | 365 | 426 | 467 | 483 | 493 | 503 |
% of Revenue | 15.3% | 23.5% | 24.0% | 24.3% | 25.8% | 25.6% | 26.6% | 27.1% | 27.1% | 27.1% | 27.1% |
Calculation of Free Cash Flow | |||||||||||
Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | |||||||||||
Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 | ||
EBITDA | 250 | 264 | 279 | 300 | 365 | 426 | 467 | 483 | 493 | 503 | |
Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
D&A | (64) | (64) | (68) | (71) | (87) | (97) | (105) | (108) | (111) | (113) | |
EBIT | 187 | 199 | 211 | 229 | 278 | 329 | 362 | 375 | 382 | 390 | |
Pro forma Taxes | (52) | (56) | (59) | (64) | (78) | (92) | (101) | (105) | (107) | (109) | |
NOPAT | 60 | 134 | 143 | 152 | 165 | 200 | 237 | 261 | 270 | 275 | 281 |
Capital Expenditures | (58) | (70) | (70) | (73) | (74) | (43) | (48) | (52) | (48) | (49) | (50) |
NWC Investment | 29 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 18 | 12 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 |
(+) D&A | 64 | 64 | 64 | 68 | 71 | 87 | 97 | 105 | 108 | 111 | 113 |
Free Cash Flow | 95 | 135 | 140 | 151 | 163 | 262 | 298 | 322 | 335 | 340 | 347 |
% Growth | 4% | 8% | 8% | 61% | 14% | 8% | 4% | 1% | 2% |