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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Discount Rate | 10.8% - 9.8% | 10.3% |
| Terminal EBITDA Multiple | 4.2x - 6.2x | 5.2x |
| Fair Value | €1.87 - €2.44 | €2.14 |
| Upside | 40.3% - 83.8% | 61.3% |
| Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | |||||||||||
| (GBP in millions) | Input Projections | ||||||||||
| Fiscal Years Ending | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
| Revenue | 963 | 1,051 | 1,096 | 1,164 | 1,146 | 1,425 | 1,603 | 1,724 | 1,784 | 1,820 | 1,856 |
| % Growth | 77.7% | 9.2% | 4.3% | 6.2% | -1.6% | 24.4% | 12.5% | 7.5% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
| EBITDA | 147 | 250 | 263 | 277 | 318 | 365 | 426 | 467 | 483 | 493 | 503 |
| % of Revenue | 15.3% | 23.8% | 24.0% | 23.8% | 27.7% | 25.6% | 26.6% | 27.1% | 27.1% | 27.1% | 27.1% |
| Calculation of Free Cash Flow | |||||||||||
| Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | |||||||||||
| (GBP in millions) | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 | |
| EBITDA | 250 | 263 | 277 | 318 | 365 | 426 | 467 | 483 | 493 | 503 | |
| Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| D&A | (64) | (64) | (66) | (77) | (96) | (108) | (116) | (120) | (122) | (125) | |
| EBIT | 186 | 199 | 211 | 241 | 269 | 319 | 351 | 363 | 371 | 378 | |
| Pro forma Taxes | (52) | (56) | (59) | (67) | (75) | (89) | (98) | (102) | (104) | (106) | |
| NOPAT | 60 | 134 | 143 | 152 | 174 | 194 | 229 | 253 | 262 | 267 | 272 |
| Capital Expenditures | (58) | (70) | (70) | (73) | (74) | (43) | (48) | (52) | (48) | (49) | (50) |
| NWC Investment | 29 | 6 | 3 | 5 | (1) | 19 | 12 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 |
| (+) D&A | 64 | 64 | 64 | 66 | 77 | 96 | 108 | 116 | 120 | 122 | 125 |
| Free Cash Flow | 95 | 133 | 140 | 150 | 175 | 266 | 301 | 325 | 338 | 343 | 350 |
| % Growth | 41% | 5% | 7% | 17% | 52% | 13% | 8% | 4% | 1% | 2% | |