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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Discount Rate | 8.5% - 7.5% | 8.0% |
| Perpetuity Growth Rate | 1.7% - 2.8% | 2.3% |
| Fair Value | €102.11 - €148.65 | €121.34 |
| Upside | -7.2% - 35.1% | 10.3% |
| Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | |||||||
| (GBP in millions) | Input Projections | ||||||
| Fiscal Years Ending | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | |
| Revenue | 8,858 | 9,337 | 9,921 | 10,579 | 11,437 | 11,837 | |
| % Growth | 5.7% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 3.5% | |
| EBITDA | 2,956 | 4,431 | 4,790 | 5,169 | 5,719 | 6,585 | |
| % of Revenue | 33.4% | 47.5% | 48.3% | 48.9% | 50.0% | 55.6% | |
| Calculation of Free Cash Flow | |||||||
| Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | |||||||
| (GBP in millions) | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Terminal | |
| EBITDA | 4,431 | 4,790 | 5,169 | 5,719 | 6,585 | 6,585 | |
| Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| D&A | (1,010) | (1,045) | (1,072) | (1,091) | (1,839) | (1,104) | |
| EBIT | 3,421 | 3,745 | 4,097 | 4,628 | 4,746 | 5,481 | |
| Pro forma Taxes | (889) | (974) | (1,065) | (1,203) | (1,234) | (1,425) | |
| NOPAT | 1,368 | 2,531 | 2,771 | 3,032 | 3,425 | 3,512 | 4,056 |
| Capital Expenditures | (74) | (922) | (933) | (948) | (984) | (1,162) | (1,162) |
| NWC Investment | 10 | 10 | 12 | 13 | 17 | 8 | 5 |
| (+) D&A | 1,107 | 1,010 | 1,045 | 1,072 | 1,091 | 1,839 | 1,104 |
| Free Cash Flow | 2,411 | 2,630 | 2,894 | 3,169 | 3,549 | 4,197 | 4,003 |
| % Growth | 9% | 10% | 9% | 12% | 18% | -5% | |