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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 10.0x - 11.1x | 10.5x |
| Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 5.8x - 6.4x | 6.1x |
| Fair Value | €5.28 - €6.30 | €5.79 |
| Upside | -14.2% - 2.4% | -5.9% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| American Vanguard Corporation | AVD | NYSE:AVD |
| CVR Partners, LP | UAN | NYSE:UAN |
| Balchem Corporation | BCPC | NasdaqGS:BCPC |
| CF Industries Holdings, Inc. | CF | NYSE:CF |
| OCI N.V. | OCIN.F | OTCPK:OCIN.F |
| LSB Industries, Inc. | LS3 | DB:LS3 |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| AVD | UAN | BCPC | CF | OCIN.F | LS3 | ||
| NYSE:AVD | NYSE:UAN | NasdaqGS:BCPC | NYSE:CF | OTCPK:OCIN.F | DB:LS3 | ||
| Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | NM- | 10.0% | 9.0% | 7.9% | NM- | 14.9% | |
| 3Y CAGR | NM- | -5.1% | 9.6% | -4.8% | NM- | -22.2% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | -127.6% | 25.1% | 12.9% | 8.7% | 18.4% | -22.1% | |
| Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 7.4% | 37.0% | 22.8% | 46.6% | 53.7% | 24.8% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 8.2% | 41.5% | 22.9% | 47.2% | -23.1% | 20.9% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | -1.7% | 34.0% | 24.3% | 44.6% | -18.3% | 15.4% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | -2.3% | 35.7% | 24.7% | 43.4% | -18.3% | 13.8% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 0.62x | 2.50x | 5.34x | 2.78x | 0.39x | 1.63x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | -26.3x | 7.0x | 21.6x | 6.4x | -2.2x | 11.8x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | -9.8x | 11.4x | 26.4x | 9.4x | -1.6x | -183.3x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | -26.3x | 6.4x | 21.6x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | 3.8x | 10.1x | 19.2x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 10.0x | 10.5x | 11.1x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBITDA | 74 | 74 | 74 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 744 | 783 | 823 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (366) | (366) | (366) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 379 | 418 | 457 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 71.9 | 71.9 | 71.9 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 5.26 | 5.81 | 6.35 | ||||
| FX Rate: USD/EUR | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 4.53 | 5.00 | 5.47 | 6.15 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | -26.3% | -18.6% | -11.0% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | AVD | UAN | BCPC | CF | OCIN.F | LS3 | |
| Enterprise Value | 326 | 1,449 | 5,310 | 17,568 | 552 | 879 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 14 | 114 | 65 | 1,686 | 2,053 | 125 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 0 | 0 | 4 | 35 | 39 | 0 | |
| (-) Debt | (209) | (584) | (208) | (3,326) | (804) | (490) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | 0 | (0) | 0 | (2,858) | (4) | 0 | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 132 | 979 | 5,171 | 13,105 | 1,835 | 513 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 28.4 | 10.6 | 32.5 | 162.0 | 210.9 | 71.9 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 4.65 | 92.64 | 159.34 | 80.91 | 8.70 | 7.14 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.16 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 4.65 | 92.64 | 159.34 | 80.91 | 8.70 | 6.15 | |
| Trading Currency | USD | USD | USD | USD | USD | EUR | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.16 | |