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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBIT Multiple | -342.5x - -378.5x | -360.5x |
| Selected Fwd EBIT Multiple | 13.2x - 14.5x | 13.9x |
| Fair Value | €4.15 - €5.05 | €4.60 |
| Upside | -43.2% - -30.9% | -37.0% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| American Vanguard Corporation | AVD | NYSE:AVD |
| CVR Partners, LP | UAN | NYSE:UAN |
| Balchem Corporation | BCPC | NasdaqGS:BCPC |
| CF Industries Holdings, Inc. | CF | NYSE:CF |
| OCI N.V. | OCIN.F | OTCPK:OCIN.F |
| LSB Industries, Inc. | LS3 | DB:LS3 |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBIT Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| AVD | UAN | BCPC | CF | OCIN.F | LS3 | ||
| NYSE:AVD | NYSE:UAN | NasdaqGS:BCPC | NYSE:CF | OTCPK:OCIN.F | DB:LS3 | ||
| Historical EBIT Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | NM- | 27.7% | 11.9% | 13.0% | NM- | NM- | |
| 3Y CAGR | NM- | -9.3% | 13.0% | -7.5% | NM- | -60.6% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | -246.4% | 8.1% | 17.9% | 8.1% | 5.0% | -105.3% | |
| Historical EBIT Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 3.6% | 21.9% | 16.7% | 32.0% | 39.8% | 11.2% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 4.2% | 29.9% | 17.0% | 34.1% | -26.3% | 9.3% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | -5.8% | 19.9% | 19.3% | 29.1% | -24.2% | 1.2% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | -7.8% | 22.4% | 20.1% | 30.9% | -24.2% | -0.4% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 0.53x | 2.61x | 5.44x | 3.37x | 0.44x | 1.84x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | -14.3x | 7.2x | 22.0x | 7.4x | -2.4x | 12.9x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | -6.8x | 11.6x | 27.1x | 10.9x | -1.8x | -491.3x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBIT | -6.8x | 10.9x | 27.1x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBIT | -31.6x | 7.2x | 70.3x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBIT | -342.5x | -360.5x | -378.5x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBIT | (2) | (2) | (2) | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 677 | 713 | 749 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (364) | (364) | (364) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 314 | 349 | 385 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 71.9 | 71.9 | 71.9 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 4.37 | 4.86 | 5.36 | ||||
| FX Rate: USD/EUR | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 3.79 | 4.22 | 4.65 | 7.30 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | -48.1% | -42.2% | -36.3% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | AVD | UAN | BCPC | CF | OCIN.F | LS3 | |
| Enterprise Value | 281 | 1,411 | 5,243 | 20,633 | 583 | 968 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 12 | 122 | 50 | 1,406 | 2,053 | 164 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 0 | 0 | 4 | 33 | 39 | 0 | |
| (-) Debt | (187) | (585) | (208) | (3,296) | (804) | (527) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | 0 | (0) | 0 | (2,517) | (4) | 0 | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 107 | 947 | 5,089 | 16,259 | 1,867 | 604 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 28.8 | 10.6 | 32.6 | 162.0 | 210.9 | 71.9 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 3.70 | 89.62 | 156.01 | 100.36 | 8.85 | 8.41 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.15 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 3.70 | 89.62 | 156.01 | 100.36 | 8.85 | 7.30 | |
| Trading Currency | USD | USD | USD | USD | USD | EUR | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.15 | |