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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Discount Rate | 8.8% - 7.8% | 8.3% |
| Perpetuity Growth Rate | 0.0% - 1.0% | 0.5% |
| Fair Value | €14.65 - €18.35 | €16.27 |
| Upside | 30.8% - 63.8% | 45.3% |
| Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | ||||||||||||
| (JPY in millions) | Input Projections | |||||||||||
| Fiscal Years Ending | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 | |
| Revenue | 826,895 | 865,100 | 904,700 | 952,500 | 1,004,300 | 1,022,200 | 1,022,200 | 1,022,200 | 1,022,200 | 1,022,200 | 1,022,200 | |
| % Growth | 5.9% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 1.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| EBITDA | 170,342 | 176,500 | 193,750 | 210,500 | 213,950 | 216,000 | 216,000 | 216,000 | 216,000 | 216,000 | 216,000 | |
| % of Revenue | 20.6% | 20.4% | 21.4% | 22.1% | 21.3% | 21.1% | 21.1% | 21.1% | 21.1% | 21.1% | 21.1% | |
| Calculation of Free Cash Flow | ||||||||||||
| Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | ||||||||||||
| (JPY in millions) | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 | Terminal | |
| EBITDA | 176,500 | 193,750 | 210,500 | 213,950 | 216,000 | 216,000 | 216,000 | 216,000 | 216,000 | 216,000 | 216,000 | |
| Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| D&A | (82,250) | (82,250) | (91,000) | (87,000) | (81,200) | (81,200) | (81,200) | (81,200) | (81,200) | (81,200) | (85,183) | |
| EBIT | 94,250 | 111,500 | 119,500 | 126,950 | 134,800 | 134,800 | 134,800 | 134,800 | 134,800 | 134,800 | 130,817 | |
| Pro forma Taxes | (32,045) | (37,910) | (40,630) | (43,163) | (45,832) | (45,832) | (45,832) | (45,832) | (45,832) | (45,832) | (44,478) | |
| NOPAT | 56,154 | 62,205 | 73,590 | 78,870 | 83,787 | 88,968 | 88,968 | 88,968 | 88,968 | 88,968 | 88,968 | 86,339 |
| Capital Expenditures | (71,383) | (90,000) | (85,500) | (89,050) | (87,650) | (92,300) | (89,667) | (89,667) | (89,667) | (89,667) | (89,667) | (89,667) |
| NWC Investment | (17,101) | (14,216) | (14,735) | (17,787) | (19,275) | (6,661) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | (1,902) |
| (+) D&A | 85,260 | 82,250 | 82,250 | 91,000 | 87,000 | 81,200 | 81,200 | 81,200 | 81,200 | 81,200 | 81,200 | 85,183 |
| Free Cash Flow | 52,930 | 40,239 | 55,605 | 63,033 | 63,862 | 71,207 | 80,501 | 80,501 | 80,501 | 80,501 | 80,501 | 79,954 |
| % Growth | -24% | 38% | 13% | 1% | 12% | 13% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | -1% | |