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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 4.4x - 4.9x | 4.6x |
| Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 4.9x - 5.4x | 5.1x |
| Fair Value | €17.72 - €19.59 | €18.66 |
| Upside | 23.1% - 36.1% | 29.6% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| African Rainbow Minerals Limited | ARI | JSE:ARI |
| Labrador Iron Ore Royalty Corporation | LIF | TSX:LIF |
| Glencore plc | GLN | JSE:GLN |
| Fortescue Ltd | FSUM.F | OTCPK:FSUM.F |
| Anglo American plc | AGL | JSE:AGL |
| Kumba Iron Ore Limited | KUI | DB:KUI |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| ARI | LIF | GLN | FSUM.F | AGL | KUI | ||
| JSE:ARI | TSX:LIF | JSE:GLN | OTCPK:FSUM.F | JSE:AGL | DB:KUI | ||
| Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | -5.3% | NM- | -0.3% | 12.2% | -3.0% | -3.8% | |
| 3Y CAGR | -55.8% | -20.6% | -15.0% | -13.7% | -27.2% | -24.7% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | -85.7% | NM | -29.7% | -26.8% | -8.8% | -34.3% | |
| Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 37.4% | 0.0% | 7.4% | 62.2% | 35.6% | 52.1% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 38.0% | NA | 6.4% | 56.9% | 28.2% | 52.1% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 9.0% | NA | 4.3% | 57.7% | 27.9% | 40.1% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 2.8% | NA | 4.3% | 50.3% | 26.0% | 40.4% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 0.00x | 4.99x | 0.31x | 2.29x | 1.66x | 1.38x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 0.1x | NA | 7.2x | 4.5x | 6.4x | 3.4x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 0.0x | 6.6x | 21.2x | 6.3x | 10.6x | 4.2x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | 0.1x | 5.5x | 7.2x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | 1.8x | 3.9x | 5.1x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 4.4x | 4.6x | 4.9x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBITDA | 27,160 | 27,160 | 27,160 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 119,926 | 126,238 | 132,550 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (513) | (513) | (513) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 119,413 | 125,725 | 132,037 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 320.7 | 320.7 | 320.7 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 372.32 | 392.00 | 411.67 | ||||
| FX Rate: ZAR/EUR | 20.9 | 20.9 | 20.9 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 17.81 | 18.75 | 19.69 | 14.40 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | 23.7% | 30.2% | 36.8% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | ARI | LIF | GLN | FSUM.F | AGL | KUI | |
| Enterprise Value | 30 | 934 | 68,509 | 38,552 | 43,877 | 97,064 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 8,444 | 19 | 2,565 | 3,409 | 8,139 | 16,347 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 33,770 | 743 | 9,808 | 375 | 791 | 22 | |
| (-) Debt | (2,134) | 0 | (38,946) | (5,439) | (16,991) | (238) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (4,134) | 0 | 5,009 | 27 | (6,240) | (16,644) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 35,976 | 1,695 | 46,945 | 36,924 | 29,576 | 96,551 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 196.1 | 64.0 | 11,890.0 | 3,074.5 | 1,079.1 | 320.7 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 183.50 | 26.49 | 3.95 | 12.01 | 27.41 | 301.03 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.06 | 1.00 | 0.06 | 20.91 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 183.50 | 26.49 | 71.28 | 12.01 | 494.79 | 14.40 | |
| Trading Currency | ZAR | CAD | ZAR | USD | ZAR | EUR | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.06 | 1.00 | 0.06 | 20.91 | |