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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Discount Rate | 8.3% - 7.2% | 7.8% |
| Perpetuity Growth Rate | 1.5% - 2.5% | 2.0% |
| Fair Value | €44.34 - €58.91 | €50.39 |
| Upside | 72.9% - 129.7% | 96.4% |
| Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | ||||||||||||
| (JPY in millions) | Input Projections | |||||||||||
| Fiscal Years Ending | Mar-25 | Mar-26 | Mar-27 | Mar-28 | Mar-29 | Mar-30 | Mar-31 | Mar-32 | Mar-33 | Mar-34 | Mar-35 | |
| Revenue | 4,104,395 | 4,048,000 | 4,203,000 | 4,253,960 | 4,411,573 | 4,568,492 | 4,659,862 | 4,753,059 | 4,848,120 | 4,945,083 | 5,043,984 | |
| % Growth | 6.2% | -1.4% | 3.8% | 1.2% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | |
| EBITDA | 810,906 | 765,000 | 788,273 | 790,000 | 848,186 | 877,241 | 894,786 | 912,682 | 930,935 | 949,554 | 968,545 | |
| % of Revenue | 19.8% | 18.9% | 18.8% | 18.6% | 19.2% | 19.2% | 19.2% | 19.2% | 19.2% | 19.2% | 19.2% | |
| Calculation of Free Cash Flow | ||||||||||||
| Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | ||||||||||||
| (JPY in millions) | Mar-26 | Mar-27 | Mar-28 | Mar-29 | Mar-30 | Mar-31 | Mar-32 | Mar-33 | Mar-34 | Mar-35 | Terminal | |
| EBITDA | 765,000 | 788,273 | 790,000 | 848,186 | 877,241 | 894,786 | 912,682 | 930,935 | 949,554 | 968,545 | 968,545 | |
| Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| D&A | (146,698) | (136,265) | (170,000) | (176,463) | (177,554) | (181,105) | (184,727) | (188,422) | (192,190) | (196,034) | (172,447) | |
| EBIT | 618,303 | 652,008 | 620,000 | 671,723 | 699,687 | 713,681 | 727,954 | 742,513 | 757,364 | 772,511 | 796,098 | |
| Pro forma Taxes | (173,125) | (182,562) | (173,600) | (188,082) | (195,912) | (199,831) | (203,827) | (207,904) | (212,062) | (216,303) | (222,908) | |
| NOPAT | 473,130 | 445,178 | 469,446 | 446,400 | 483,641 | 503,775 | 513,850 | 524,127 | 534,610 | 545,302 | 556,208 | 573,191 |
| Capital Expenditures | #NUM! | (200,000) | (190,000) | (190,000) | (180,000) | (180,000) | (183,333) | (181,111) | (181,481) | (181,975) | (181,523) | (181,523) |
| NWC Investment | (93,333) | 21,998 | (60,461) | (19,878) | (61,480) | (61,210) | (35,641) | (36,354) | (37,081) | (37,822) | (38,579) | (39,350) |
| (+) D&A | 153,781 | 146,698 | 136,265 | 170,000 | 176,463 | 177,554 | 181,105 | 184,727 | 188,422 | 192,190 | 196,034 | 172,447 |
| Free Cash Flow | #NUM! | 413,873 | 355,250 | 406,522 | 418,623 | 440,119 | 475,981 | 491,390 | 504,469 | 517,695 | 532,141 | 524,765 |
| % Growth | NM | -14% | 14% | 3% | 5% | 8% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 3% | -1% | |