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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Discount Rate | 8.3% - 7.2% | 7.8% |
| Terminal EBITDA Multiple | 6.9x - 8.9x | 7.9x |
| Fair Value | €40.41 - €49.74 | €44.90 |
| Upside | 44.7% - 78.1% | 60.8% |
| Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | |||||||||||
| (JPY in millions) | Input Projections | ||||||||||
| Fiscal Years Ending | Mar-25 | Mar-26 | Mar-27 | Mar-28 | Mar-29 | Mar-30 | Mar-31 | Mar-32 | Mar-33 | Mar-34 | Mar-35 |
| Revenue | 4,104,395 | 3,993,000 | 4,200,000 | 4,264,700 | 4,411,573 | 4,617,846 | 4,710,203 | 4,804,407 | 4,900,495 | 4,998,505 | 5,098,475 |
| % Growth | 6.2% | -2.7% | 5.2% | 1.5% | 3.4% | 4.7% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
| EBITDA | 820,129 | 731,200 | 773,000 | 803,300 | 848,186 | 928,771 | 947,346 | 966,293 | 985,619 | 1,005,331 | 1,025,438 |
| % of Revenue | 20.0% | 18.3% | 18.4% | 18.8% | 19.2% | 20.1% | 20.1% | 20.1% | 20.1% | 20.1% | 20.1% |
| Calculation of Free Cash Flow | |||||||||||
| Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | |||||||||||
| (JPY in millions) | Mar-26 | Mar-27 | Mar-28 | Mar-29 | Mar-30 | Mar-31 | Mar-32 | Mar-33 | Mar-34 | Mar-35 | |
| EBITDA | 731,200 | 773,000 | 803,300 | 848,186 | 928,771 | 947,346 | 966,293 | 985,619 | 1,005,331 | 1,025,438 | |
| Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| D&A | (169,200) | (167,661) | (164,500) | (176,463) | (182,227) | (185,872) | (189,589) | (193,381) | (197,248) | (201,193) | |
| EBIT | 562,000 | 605,339 | 638,800 | 671,723 | 746,544 | 761,474 | 776,704 | 792,238 | 808,083 | 824,244 | |
| Pro forma Taxes | (151,740) | (163,442) | (172,476) | (181,365) | (201,567) | (205,598) | (209,710) | (213,904) | (218,182) | (222,546) | |
| NOPAT | 479,701 | 410,260 | 441,897 | 466,324 | 490,358 | 544,977 | 555,876 | 566,994 | 578,334 | 589,900 | 601,698 |
| Capital Expenditures | (205,855) | (200,000) | (200,000) | (200,000) | (195,250) | (180,000) | (183,600) | (186,283) | (183,294) | (184,393) | (184,657) |
| NWC Investment | (121,566) | 56,596 | (105,169) | (32,872) | (74,621) | (104,800) | (46,923) | (47,862) | (48,819) | (49,795) | (50,791) |
| (+) D&A | 163,004 | 169,200 | 167,661 | 164,500 | 176,463 | 182,227 | 185,872 | 189,589 | 193,381 | 197,248 | 201,193 |
| Free Cash Flow | 315,284 | 436,056 | 304,389 | 397,952 | 396,950 | 442,404 | 511,225 | 522,438 | 539,601 | 552,961 | 567,444 |
| % Growth | 38% | -30% | 31% | 0% | 11% | 16% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 3% | |