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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 6.1x - 6.7x | 6.4x |
Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 5.5x - 6.1x | 5.8x |
Fair Value | €19.82 - €21.89 | €20.85 |
Upside | 1.4% - 12.0% | 6.7% |
Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
K+S Aktiengesellschaft | SDF | DB:SDF |
Novonesis A/S | NZM2 | DB:NZM2 |
Syensqo SA/NV | 2NF | DUSE:2NF |
Symrise AG | SY1 | DB:SY1 |
Umicore SA | NVJP | DB:NVJP |
Kemira Oyj | KEM | DB:KEM |
- | - | - |
Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
Benchmark Companies | |||||||
SDF | NZM2 | 2NF | SY1 | NVJP | KEM | ||
DB:SDF | DB:NZM2 | DUSE:2NF | DB:SY1 | DB:NVJP | DB:KEM | ||
Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
5Y CAGR | -0.5% | 12.0% | NM- | 6.7% | NM- | 8.1% | |
3Y CAGR | -17.4% | 16.7% | 1.6% | 9.1% | NM- | 15.4% | |
Latest Twelve Months | 24.8% | 37.2% | -15.7% | 22.2% | -106.1% | 5.2% | |
Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
5 Year Average Margin | 20.4% | 31.6% | 20.8% | 19.0% | 3.8% | 14.8% | |
Prior Fiscal Year | 19.5% | 31.5% | 22.6% | 16.8% | 5.7% | 14.8% | |
Latest Fiscal Year | 11.6% | 28.2% | 18.5% | 19.4% | -0.4% | 17.5% | |
Latest Twelve Months | 14.0% | 29.1% | 18.1% | 19.4% | -0.4% | 17.2% | |
Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
EV / LTM Revenue | 0.74x | 7.58x | 1.18x | 3.20x | 0.21x | 1.03x | |
EV / LTM EBITDA | 5.3x | 26.0x | 6.5x | 16.5x | -48.1x | 6.0x | |
EV / LTM EBIT | 62.8x | 33.4x | 12.1x | 22.5x | -10.0x | 8.8x | |
Low | Mid | High | |||||
Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | -48.1x | 6.5x | 26.0x | ||||
Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | 4.5x | 6.7x | 7.2x | ||||
Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 6.1x | 6.4x | 6.7x | ||||
(x) LTM EBITDA | 497 | 497 | 497 | ||||
(=) Implied Enterprise Value | 3,035 | 3,195 | 3,355 | ||||
(-) Non-shareholder Claims * | 21 | 21 | 21 | ||||
(=) Equity Value | 3,056 | 3,216 | 3,376 | ||||
(/) Shares Outstanding | 154.4 | 154.4 | 154.4 | ||||
Implied Value Range | 19.79 | 20.82 | 21.86 | ||||
FX Rate: EUR/EUR | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 19.79 | 20.82 | 21.86 | 19.54 | |||
Upside / (Downside) | 1.3% | 6.6% | 11.9% |
Equity Waterfall | |||||||
Benchmark Companies | |||||||
(in millions) | SDF | NZM2 | 2NF | SY1 | NVJP | KEM | |
Enterprise Value | 2,706 | 30,819 | 6,965 | 15,899 | 3,075 | 2,997 | |
(+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 614 | 250 | 610 | 709 | 2,013 | 454 | |
(+) Investments & Other | 284 | 23 | 316 | 617 | 611 | 259 | |
(-) Debt | (740) | (1,699) | (2,072) | (2,546) | (3,437) | (671) | |
(-) Other Liabilities | (4) | 0 | (53) | (38) | 16 | (22) | |
(-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
(-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Value of Common Equity | 2,860 | 29,392 | 5,766 | 14,641 | 2,279 | 3,018 | |
(/) Shares Outstanding | 179.1 | 465.8 | 89.3 | 139.8 | 240.5 | 154.4 | |
Implied Stock Price | 15.97 | 63.10 | 64.58 | 104.75 | 9.48 | 19.54 | |
FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 15.97 | 63.10 | 64.58 | 104.75 | 9.48 | 19.54 | |
Trading Currency | EUR | EUR | EUR | EUR | EUR | EUR | |
FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |