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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Discount Rate | 10.5% - 9.5% | 10.0% |
Terminal EBITDA Multiple | 14.5x - 16.5x | 15.5x |
Fair Value | €105.89 - €123.92 | €114.61 |
Upside | -24.8% - -12.0% | -18.6% |
Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | |||||||||||
(USD in millions) | Input Projections | ||||||||||
Fiscal Years Ending | Apr-24 | Apr-25 | Apr-26 | Apr-27 | Apr-28 | Apr-29 | Apr-30 | Apr-31 | Apr-32 | Apr-33 | Apr-34 |
Revenue | 717 | 789 | 935 | 1,048 | 1,155 | 1,279 | 1,374 | 1,423 | 1,451 | 1,480 | 1,510 |
% Growth | 32.6% | 10.0% | 18.6% | 12.0% | 10.2% | 10.7% | 7.5% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
EBITDA | 109 | 140 | 180 | 214 | 257 | 309 | 339 | 351 | 358 | 366 | 373 |
% of Revenue | 15.3% | 17.8% | 19.3% | 20.4% | 22.2% | 24.2% | 24.7% | 24.7% | 24.7% | 24.7% | 24.7% |
Calculation of Free Cash Flow | |||||||||||
Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | |||||||||||
(USD in millions) | Apr-25 | Apr-26 | Apr-27 | Apr-28 | Apr-29 | Apr-30 | Apr-31 | Apr-32 | Apr-33 | Apr-34 | |
EBITDA | 140 | 180 | 214 | 257 | 309 | 339 | 351 | 358 | 366 | 373 | |
Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
D&A | (76) | (57) | (58) | (86) | (95) | (102) | (105) | (108) | (110) | (112) | |
EBIT | 65 | 123 | 156 | 171 | 215 | 238 | 246 | 251 | 256 | 261 | |
Pro forma Taxes | (9) | (17) | (22) | (24) | (30) | (33) | (34) | (35) | (36) | (37) | |
NOPAT | 63 | 56 | 106 | 134 | 147 | 185 | 204 | 211 | 216 | 220 | 224 |
Capital Expenditures | (23) | (39) | (41) | (32) | (36) | (40) | (36) | (37) | (38) | (37) | (37) |
NWC Investment | (81) | (33) | (67) | (51) | (49) | (57) | (44) | (22) | (13) | (13) | (14) |
(+) D&A | 36 | 76 | 57 | 58 | 86 | 95 | 102 | 105 | 108 | 110 | 112 |
Free Cash Flow | (4) | 60 | 55 | 109 | 148 | 183 | 227 | 258 | 273 | 280 | 286 |
% Growth | NM | -8% | 99% | 35% | 24% | 24% | 14% | 6% | 3% | 2% |