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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 5.8x - 6.5x | 6.1x |
| Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 4.6x - 5.1x | 4.8x |
| Fair Value | €3.34 - €4.08 | €3.71 |
| Upside | -16.8% - 1.4% | -7.7% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| Idemitsu Kosan Co.,Ltd. | 5019 | TSE:5019 |
| Indian Oil Corporation Limited | 530965 | BSE:530965 |
| China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation | 386 | SEHK:386 |
| Phillips 66 | PSX | NYSE:PSX |
| PetroChina Company Limited | 857 | SEHK:857 |
| ENEOS Holdings, Inc. | JHJ | DB:JHJ |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| 5019 | 530965 | 386 | PSX | 857 | JHJ | ||
| TSE:5019 | BSE:530965 | SEHK:386 | NYSE:PSX | SEHK:857 | DB:JHJ | ||
| Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 21.9% | 13.1% | -0.8% | -2.0% | 7.0% | 9.3% | |
| 3Y CAGR | -21.0% | -8.8% | -6.4% | 25.9% | 7.3% | -22.8% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | -41.2% | -53.1% | -7.3% | -62.7% | -2.8% | -37.3% | |
| Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 4.9% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 3.7% | 14.8% | 5.9% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 5.2% | 9.9% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 16.3% | 5.3% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 2.9% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 2.9% | 16.3% | 3.7% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 2.9% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 2.4% | 16.7% | 3.7% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 0.18x | 0.38x | 0.30x | 0.40x | 0.48x | 0.27x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 6.2x | 7.9x | 5.6x | 16.8x | 2.9x | 7.3x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 10.2x | 14.8x | 14.9x | 48.7x | 5.6x | 35.1x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | 2.9x | 6.2x | 16.8x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | 3.2x | 6.2x | 15.7x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 5.8x | 6.1x | 6.5x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBITDA | 461,385 | 461,385 | 461,385 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 2,694,009 | 2,835,799 | 2,977,589 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (1,588,979) | (1,588,979) | (1,588,979) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 1,105,030 | 1,246,820 | 1,388,610 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 2,690.4 | 2,690.4 | 2,690.4 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 410.74 | 463.44 | 516.14 | ||||
| FX Rate: JPY/EUR | 162.8 | 162.8 | 162.8 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 2.52 | 2.85 | 3.17 | 4.02 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | -37.2% | -29.2% | -21.1% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | 5019 | 530965 | 386 | PSX | 857 | JHJ | |
| Enterprise Value | 1,657,462 | 2,854,901 | 948,794 | 54,976 | 1,517,863 | 3,349,339 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 165,762 | 136,739 | 159,426 | 1,489 | 316,530 | 846,563 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 424,686 | 568,496 | 249,966 | 13,216 | 300,860 | 610,388 | |
| (-) Debt | (1,196,374) | (1,522,706) | (530,577) | (18,803) | (364,748) | (2,676,027) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (17,330) | (45,373) | (155,641) | (1,080) | (199,413) | (369,903) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 1,034,206 | 1,992,056 | 671,968 | 49,798 | 1,571,092 | 1,760,360 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 1,224.6 | 13,771.6 | 179,319.0 | 407.6 | 273,222.9 | 2,690.4 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 844.50 | 144.65 | 3.75 | 122.18 | 5.75 | 654.32 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.92 | 1.00 | 0.92 | 162.77 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 844.50 | 144.65 | 4.06 | 122.18 | 6.23 | 4.02 | |
| Trading Currency | JPY | INR | HKD | USD | HKD | EUR | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.92 | 1.00 | 0.92 | 162.77 | |
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