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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Discount Rate | 9.8% - 8.8% | 9.3% |
| Perpetuity Growth Rate | 1.5% - 2.5% | 2.0% |
| Fair Value | €3.15 - €4.71 | €3.82 |
| Upside | -25.0% - 12.0% | -9.0% |
| Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | |||||||
| (JPY in millions) | Input Projections | ||||||
| Fiscal Years Ending | Mar-25 | Mar-26 | Mar-27 | Mar-28 | Mar-29 | Mar-30 | |
| Revenue | 12,322,494 | 11,491,900 | 11,634,050 | 11,266,000 | 11,627,700 | 10,930,000 | |
| % Growth | -11.1% | -6.7% | 1.2% | -3.2% | 3.2% | -6.0% | |
| EBITDA | 627,484 | 679,450 | 756,700 | 774,800 | 766,400 | 720,413 | |
| % of Revenue | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 6.6% | |
| Calculation of Free Cash Flow | |||||||
| Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | |||||||
| (JPY in millions) | Mar-26 | Mar-27 | Mar-28 | Mar-29 | Mar-30 | Terminal | |
| EBITDA | 679,450 | 756,700 | 774,800 | 766,400 | 720,413 | 720,413 | |
| Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| D&A | (369,450) | (342,700) | (334,800) | (296,200) | (221,413) | (351,500) | |
| EBIT | 310,000 | 414,000 | 440,000 | 470,200 | 499,000 | 368,913 | |
| Pro forma Taxes | (80,600) | (107,640) | (114,400) | (122,252) | (129,740) | (95,918) | |
| NOPAT | 194,300 | 229,400 | 306,360 | 325,600 | 347,948 | 369,260 | 272,996 |
| Capital Expenditures | (327,248) | (530,000) | (460,000) | (460,000) | (415,000) | (370,000) | (370,000) |
| NWC Investment | 199,128 | 107,807 | (18,450) | 47,771 | (46,947) | 90,558 | (28,373) |
| (+) D&A | 364,917 | 369,450 | 342,700 | 334,800 | 296,200 | 221,413 | 351,500 |
| Free Cash Flow | 431,097 | 176,657 | 170,610 | 248,171 | 182,201 | 311,232 | 226,123 |
| % Growth | -59% | -3% | 45% | -27% | 71% | -27% | |