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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 9.7x - 10.7x | 10.2x |
Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 6.9x - 7.6x | 7.3x |
Fair Value | €0.54 - €0.71 | €0.62 |
Upside | 1.0% - 34.8% | 17.9% |
Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
PTT Global Chemical Public Company Limited | PTTGC | SET:PTTGC |
Mitsubishi Gas Chemical Company, Inc. | 4182 | TSE:4182 |
Huntsman Corporation | HTR | DB:HTR |
LyondellBasell Industries N.V. | LYB | NYSE:LYB |
Formosa Chemicals & Fibre Corporation | 1326 | TWSE:1326 |
Indorama Ventures Public Company Limited | I93 | DB:I93 |
- | - | - |
Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
Benchmark Companies | |||||||
PTTGC | 4182 | HTR | LYB | 1326 | I93 | ||
SET:PTTGC | TSE:4182 | DB:HTR | NYSE:LYB | TWSE:1326 | DB:I93 | ||
Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
5Y CAGR | -4.9% | 6.3% | -12.5% | -5.1% | -16.6% | 8.2% | |
3Y CAGR | -31.5% | -0.2% | -29.4% | -21.7% | -36.4% | -11.4% | |
Latest Twelve Months | -61.9% | 2.0% | -1.3% | -23.4% | -12.8% | -0.7% | |
Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
5 Year Average Margin | 6.8% | 11.6% | 9.6% | 13.5% | 7.8% | 9.3% | |
Prior Fiscal Year | 5.1% | 10.5% | 6.1% | 12.0% | 4.3% | 6.2% | |
Latest Fiscal Year | 3.1% | 11.3% | 6.0% | 10.2% | 3.9% | 7.6% | |
Latest Twelve Months | 2.2% | 11.3% | 6.3% | 8.9% | 3.9% | 7.0% | |
Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
EV / LTM Revenue | 0.44x | 0.49x | 0.67x | 0.70x | 0.25x | 0.69x | |
EV / LTM EBITDA | 19.7x | 4.3x | 10.6x | 7.8x | 6.4x | 9.9x | |
EV / LTM EBIT | -27.1x | 7.5x | 41.5x | 12.5x | -46.3x | 26.9x | |
Low | Mid | High | |||||
Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | 4.3x | 7.8x | 19.7x | ||||
Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | 5.5x | 9.2x | 16.8x | ||||
Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 9.7x | 10.2x | 10.7x | ||||
(x) LTM EBITDA | 36,747 | 36,747 | 36,747 | ||||
(=) Implied Enterprise Value | 357,133 | 375,929 | 394,726 | ||||
(-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (249,053) | (249,053) | (249,053) | ||||
(=) Equity Value | 108,080 | 126,877 | 145,673 | ||||
(/) Shares Outstanding | 5,614.6 | 5,614.6 | 5,614.6 | ||||
Implied Value Range | 19.25 | 22.60 | 25.95 | ||||
FX Rate: THB/EUR | 37.9 | 37.9 | 37.9 | Market Price | |||
Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 0.51 | 0.60 | 0.68 | 0.53 | |||
Upside / (Downside) | -4.1% | 12.5% | 29.2% |
Equity Waterfall | |||||||
Benchmark Companies | |||||||
(in millions) | PTTGC | 4182 | HTR | LYB | 1326 | I93 | |
Enterprise Value | 263,612 | 380,729 | 3,955 | 27,677 | 82,538 | 361,790 | |
(+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 37,071 | 68,246 | 334 | 1,895 | 76,377 | 20,212 | |
(+) Investments & Other | 54,988 | 255,226 | 317 | 4,114 | 165,475 | 4,205 | |
(-) Debt | (254,682) | (202,976) | (2,355) | (12,814) | (162,003) | (260,329) | |
(-) Other Liabilities | (6,755) | (29,153) | (220) | (126) | (32,832) | (13,140) | |
(-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
(-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Value of Common Equity | 94,235 | 472,072 | 2,031 | 20,746 | 129,556 | 112,737 | |
(/) Shares Outstanding | 4,508.8 | 194.7 | 173.7 | 321.4 | 5,849.0 | 5,614.6 | |
Implied Stock Price | 20.90 | 2,424.50 | 11.69 | 64.55 | 22.15 | 20.08 | |
FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.17 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 37.89 | |
Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 20.90 | 2,424.50 | 10.00 | 64.55 | 22.15 | 0.53 | |
Trading Currency | THB | JPY | EUR | USD | TWD | EUR | |
FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.17 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 37.89 |
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