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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Discount Rate | 9.8% - 8.8% | 9.3% |
Terminal EBITDA Multiple | 6.6x - 8.6x | 7.6x |
Fair Value | €4.21 - €6.57 | €5.37 |
Upside | -17.4% - 28.9% | 5.3% |
Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | ||||||
(JPY in millions) | Input Projections | |||||
Fiscal Years Ending | Mar-25 | Mar-26 | Mar-27 | Mar-28 | Mar-29 | Mar-30 |
Revenue | 9,190,225 | 7,810,000 | 8,061,000 | 7,933,500 | 7,921,550 | 8,090,000 |
% Growth | 5.4% | -15.0% | 3.2% | -1.6% | -0.2% | 2.1% |
EBITDA | 267,261 | 166,100 | 307,800 | 309,000 | 310,200 | 316,796 |
% of Revenue | 2.9% | 2.1% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 3.9% |
Calculation of Free Cash Flow | ||||||
Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | ||||||
(JPY in millions) | Mar-26 | Mar-27 | Mar-28 | Mar-29 | Mar-30 | |
EBITDA | 166,100 | 307,800 | 309,000 | 310,200 | 316,796 | |
Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
D&A | (129,800) | (122,950) | (127,900) | (123,500) | (127,096) | |
EBIT | 36,300 | 184,850 | 181,100 | 186,700 | 189,700 | |
Pro forma Taxes | (12,342) | (62,849) | (61,574) | (63,478) | (64,498) | |
NOPAT | 107,043 | 23,958 | 122,001 | 119,526 | 123,222 | 125,202 |
Capital Expenditures | (86,552) | (311,400) | (200,000) | (200,000) | (185,700) | (200,000) |
NWC Investment | (61,167) | 179,235 | (32,595) | 16,557 | 1,552 | (21,875) |
(+) D&A | 105,074 | 129,800 | 122,950 | 127,900 | 123,500 | 127,096 |
Free Cash Flow | 64,399 | 21,593 | 12,356 | 63,983 | 62,574 | 30,424 |
% Growth | -66% | -43% | 418% | -2% | -51% |