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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Discount Rate | 10.3% - 9.3% | 9.8% |
Terminal EBITDA Multiple | 16.1x - 18.1x | 17.1x |
Fair Value | €308.90 - €361.01 | €334.10 |
Upside | -16.1% - -1.9% | -9.2% |
Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | |||||||||||
(USD in millions) | Input Projections | ||||||||||
Fiscal Years Ending | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
Revenue | 5,629 | 5,906 | 6,291 | 6,521 | 6,978 | 7,395 | 7,654 | 7,807 | 7,963 | 8,122 | 8,285 |
% Growth | 4.8% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 3.6% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
EBITDA | 1,313 | 1,375 | 1,491 | 1,592 | 1,692 | 1,831 | 1,895 | 1,933 | 1,972 | 2,011 | 2,051 |
% of Revenue | 23.3% | 23.3% | 23.7% | 24.4% | 24.2% | 24.8% | 24.8% | 24.8% | 24.8% | 24.8% | 24.8% |
Calculation of Free Cash Flow | |||||||||||
Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | |||||||||||
(USD in millions) | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 | |
EBITDA | 1,375 | 1,491 | 1,592 | 1,692 | 1,831 | 1,895 | 1,933 | 1,972 | 2,011 | 2,051 | |
Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
D&A | (187) | (209) | (236) | (227) | (240) | (248) | (253) | (258) | (264) | (269) | |
EBIT | 1,188 | 1,283 | 1,356 | 1,465 | 1,591 | 1,647 | 1,680 | 1,713 | 1,747 | 1,782 | |
Pro forma Taxes | (249) | (269) | (285) | (308) | (334) | (346) | (353) | (360) | (367) | (374) | |
NOPAT | 872 | 938 | 1,013 | 1,071 | 1,157 | 1,257 | 1,301 | 1,327 | 1,353 | 1,381 | 1,408 |
Capital Expenditures | (180) | (152) | (167) | (182) | (192) | (203) | (192) | (196) | (197) | (195) | (196) |
NWC Investment | (34) | (37) | (52) | (31) | (61) | (56) | (35) | (20) | (21) | (21) | (22) |
(+) D&A | 209 | 187 | 209 | 236 | 227 | 240 | 248 | 253 | 258 | 264 | 269 |
Free Cash Flow | 866 | 936 | 1,004 | 1,095 | 1,131 | 1,238 | 1,322 | 1,364 | 1,394 | 1,428 | 1,459 |
% Growth | 8% | 7% | 9% | 3% | 9% | 7% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 2% |