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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 2.6x - 2.9x | 2.7x |
Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 2.9x - 3.2x | 3.0x |
Fair Value | €0.90 - €0.95 | €0.93 |
Upside | 10.8% - 16.2% | 13.5% |
Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
Hochschild Mining plc | HOC | LSE:HOC |
Ferroglobe PLC | GSM | NasdaqCM:GSM |
Endeavour Mining plc | EDV | LSE:EDV |
Capital Limited | CAPD | LSE:CAPD |
Rio Tinto Group | RIO | LSE:RIO |
Ecora Resources PLC | HGR | DB:HGR |
- | - | - |
Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
Benchmark Companies | |||||||
HOC | GSM | EDV | CAPD | RIO | HGR | ||
LSE:HOC | NasdaqCM:GSM | LSE:EDV | LSE:CAPD | LSE:RIO | DB:HGR | ||
Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
5Y CAGR | 5.2% | NM- | 37.2% | 22.9% | 0.0% | -6.0% | |
3Y CAGR | 4.4% | 6.0% | -2.6% | 2.1% | -17.5% | -12.3% | |
Latest Twelve Months | 67.5% | -62.2% | 56.2% | -18.1% | -2.0% | -4.6% | |
Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
5 Year Average Margin | 35.6% | 12.3% | 49.5% | 27.5% | 43.3% | 83.5% | |
Prior Fiscal Year | 33.0% | 17.4% | 52.7% | 29.1% | 36.0% | 80.5% | |
Latest Fiscal Year | 40.5% | 9.3% | 46.0% | 21.8% | 35.5% | 79.8% | |
Latest Twelve Months | 40.5% | 6.0% | 51.7% | 21.8% | 35.5% | 79.8% | |
Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
EV / LTM Revenue | 2.35x | 0.62x | 2.62x | 0.97x | 2.09x | 1.69x | |
EV / LTM EBITDA | 5.8x | 10.3x | 5.1x | 4.5x | 5.9x | 2.1x | |
EV / LTM EBIT | 9.8x | 42.4x | 11.1x | 7.8x | 8.0x | 2.5x | |
Low | Mid | High | |||||
Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | 4.5x | 5.8x | 10.3x | ||||
Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | 1.3x | 2.1x | 4.6x | ||||
Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 2.6x | 2.7x | 2.9x | ||||
(x) LTM EBITDA | 48 | 48 | 48 | ||||
(=) Implied Enterprise Value | 124 | 130 | 137 | ||||
(-) Non-shareholder Claims * | 143 | 143 | 143 | ||||
(=) Equity Value | 267 | 273 | 280 | ||||
(/) Shares Outstanding | 249.0 | 249.0 | 249.0 | ||||
Implied Value Range | 1.07 | 1.10 | 1.12 | ||||
FX Rate: USD/EUR | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | Market Price | |||
Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 0.91 | 0.93 | 0.95 | 0.82 | |||
Upside / (Downside) | 11.5% | 14.2% | 16.9% |
Equity Waterfall | |||||||
Benchmark Companies | |||||||
(in millions) | HOC | GSM | EDV | CAPD | RIO | HGR | |
Enterprise Value | 2,306 | 964 | 8,439 | 339 | 107,146 | 96 | |
(+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 97 | 129 | 737 | 71 | 8,865 | 8 | |
(+) Investments & Other | 16 | 25 | 0 | 6 | 5,355 | 229 | |
(-) Debt | (319) | (232) | (1,162) | (149) | (14,222) | (93) | |
(-) Other Liabilities | (76) | 0 | (337) | (12) | (2,719) | 0 | |
(-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
(-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Value of Common Equity | 2,024 | 886 | 7,678 | 255 | 104,425 | 239 | |
(/) Shares Outstanding | 514.5 | 186.6 | 241.8 | 196.7 | 1,624.9 | 249.0 | |
Implied Stock Price | 3.93 | 4.75 | 31.76 | 1.30 | 64.26 | 0.96 | |
FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.36 | 1.00 | 1.36 | 1.36 | 1.36 | 1.18 | |
Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 2.90 | 4.75 | 23.38 | 0.95 | 47.32 | 0.82 | |
Trading Currency | GBP | USD | GBP | GBP | GBP | EUR | |
FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.36 | 1.00 | 1.36 | 1.36 | 1.36 | 1.18 |