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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBIT Multiple | 4.4x - 4.8x | 4.6x |
| Selected Fwd EBIT Multiple | 5.3x - 5.9x | 5.6x |
| Fair Value | €0.98 - €1.03 | €1 |
| Upside | 18.8% - 25.1% | 22.0% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| Rio Tinto Group | RIO | LSE:RIO |
| Endeavour Mining plc | EDV | LSE:EDV |
| Central Asia Metals plc | CAML | AIM:CAML |
| Hochschild Mining plc | HOC | LSE:HOC |
| Ferroglobe PLC | GSM | NasdaqCM:GSM |
| Ecora Resources PLC | HGR | DB:HGR |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBIT Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| RIO | EDV | CAML | HOC | GSM | HGR | ||
| LSE:RIO | LSE:EDV | AIM:CAML | LSE:HOC | NasdaqCM:GSM | DB:HGR | ||
| Historical EBIT Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | -1.1% | NM- | -2.5% | 14.9% | NM- | -7.8% | |
| 3Y CAGR | -22.0% | -10.0% | -14.8% | 6.3% | 37.5% | -10.8% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | -11.7% | 210.2% | 3.8% | 173.1% | -108.1% | -6.5% | |
| Historical EBIT Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 34.0% | 22.4% | 41.8% | 16.2% | 7.8% | 71.1% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 27.5% | 21.1% | 32.6% | 11.9% | 13.5% | 68.2% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 26.1% | 14.1% | 32.2% | 23.8% | 4.9% | 66.2% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 24.2% | 29.8% | 32.2% | 23.8% | -0.9% | 66.2% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 2.19x | 2.47x | 1.50x | 2.53x | 0.60x | 1.81x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 6.5x | 4.5x | 3.3x | 6.2x | 15.8x | 2.3x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 9.0x | 8.3x | 4.7x | 10.6x | -68.5x | 2.7x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBIT | -68.5x | 8.3x | 10.6x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBIT | 1.5x | 2.7x | 5.6x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBIT | 4.4x | 4.6x | 4.8x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBIT | 39 | 39 | 39 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 173 | 182 | 191 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | 143 | 143 | 143 | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 316 | 325 | 335 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 249.1 | 249.1 | 249.1 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 1.27 | 1.31 | 1.34 | ||||
| FX Rate: USD/EUR | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 1.08 | 1.12 | 1.15 | 0.82 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | 31.9% | 35.7% | 39.4% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | RIO | EDV | CAML | HOC | GSM | HGR | |
| Enterprise Value | 113,712 | 9,168 | 322 | 2,373 | 897 | 97 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 9,334 | 641 | 67 | 97 | 148 | 8 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 5,436 | 0 | 4 | 16 | 28 | 229 | |
| (-) Debt | (23,640) | (1,183) | (2) | (319) | (256) | (93) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (3,764) | (294) | 1 | (76) | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 101,078 | 8,332 | 393 | 2,091 | 816 | 240 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 1,625.1 | 241.5 | 174.6 | 514.5 | 186.6 | 249.1 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 62.20 | 34.50 | 2.25 | 4.06 | 4.37 | 0.96 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.35 | 1.35 | 1.35 | 1.35 | 1.00 | 1.17 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 46.01 | 25.52 | 1.67 | 3.01 | 4.37 | 0.82 | |
| Trading Currency | GBP | GBP | GBP | GBP | USD | EUR | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.35 | 1.35 | 1.35 | 1.35 | 1.00 | 1.17 | |