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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 7.4x - 8.2x | 7.8x |
| Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 5.6x - 6.1x | 5.9x |
| Fair Value | €139.99 - €157.03 | €148.51 |
| Upside | -30.5% - -22.1% | -26.3% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| Cementir Holding N.V. | 3PC | DB:3PC |
| Buzzi S.p.A. | UCM | DB:UCM |
| Vicat S.A. | 4HM | DB:4HM |
| Eagle Materials Inc. | E5M | DB:E5M |
| Holcim AG | HLBN | XTRA:HLBN |
| Heidelberg Materials AG | HEI | DB:HEI |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| 3PC | UCM | 4HM | E5M | HLBN | HEI | ||
| DB:3PC | DB:UCM | DB:4HM | DB:E5M | XTRA:HLBN | DB:HEI | ||
| Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 9.1% | 12.4% | 9.0% | 14.8% | 2.3% | 6.3% | |
| 3Y CAGR | 10.5% | 17.8% | 6.0% | 8.0% | 2.6% | 7.8% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 2.3% | 2.4% | 2.6% | -2.2% | 1.5% | 5.9% | |
| Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 18.7% | 24.6% | 16.4% | 32.6% | 20.6% | 16.6% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 20.4% | 27.8% | 16.3% | 34.3% | 21.8% | 17.4% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 20.2% | 28.5% | 17.0% | 33.5% | 22.6% | 18.5% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 20.1% | 28.5% | 17.0% | 33.5% | 22.6% | 18.5% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 1.36x | 1.86x | 1.09x | 3.72x | 1.53x | 1.89x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 6.8x | 6.5x | 6.4x | 11.1x | 6.8x | 10.2x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 9.8x | 8.2x | 10.4x | 14.0x | 9.3x | 14.0x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | 6.4x | 6.8x | 11.1x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | 5.0x | 5.8x | 10.2x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 7.4x | 7.8x | 8.2x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBITDA | 3,921 | 3,921 | 3,921 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 29,112 | 30,644 | 32,176 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (3,889) | (3,889) | (3,889) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 25,223 | 26,755 | 28,288 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 177.9 | 177.9 | 177.9 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 141.75 | 150.37 | 158.98 | ||||
| FX Rate: EUR/EUR | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 141.75 | 150.37 | 158.98 | 201.50 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | -29.7% | -25.4% | -21.1% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | 3PC | UCM | 4HM | E5M | HLBN | HEI | |
| Enterprise Value | 2,169 | 8,076 | 4,195 | 8,273 | 77,255 | 39,743 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 486 | 1,410 | 536 | 20 | 5,352 | 3,233 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 0 | 478 | 160 | 140 | 3,530 | 2,616 | |
| (-) Debt | (213) | (608) | (1,783) | (1,276) | (13,856) | (8,558) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | 0 | (5) | (303) | 0 | (716) | (1,179) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 2,442 | 9,352 | 2,804 | 7,157 | 71,565 | 35,854 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 155.5 | 181.1 | 44.4 | 32.6 | 1,133.2 | 177.9 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 15.70 | 51.65 | 63.10 | 219.34 | 63.15 | 201.50 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.17 | 0.93 | 1.00 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 15.70 | 51.65 | 63.10 | 188.00 | 67.82 | 201.50 | |
| Trading Currency | EUR | EUR | EUR | EUR | EUR | EUR | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.17 | 0.93 | 1.00 | |