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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Discount Rate | 8.8% - 7.8% | 8.3% |
| Terminal Revenue Multiple | 3.3x - 3.7x | 3.5x |
| Fair Value | €4.16 - €4.88 | €4.50 |
| Upside | -5.0% - 11.5% | 2.9% |
| Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | |||||||||||
| (GBP in millions) | Input Projections | ||||||||||
| Fiscal Years Ending | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
| Revenue | 11,233 | 11,465 | 11,993 | 12,499 | 13,233 | 14,174 | 14,670 | 14,963 | 15,263 | 15,568 | 15,879 |
| % Growth | -0.6% | 2.1% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
| EBITDA | 2,683 | 2,848 | 3,034 | 3,188 | 3,396 | 3,900 | 4,037 | 4,117 | 4,200 | 4,284 | 4,369 |
| % of Revenue | 23.9% | 24.8% | 25.3% | 25.5% | 25.7% | 27.5% | 27.5% | 27.5% | 27.5% | 27.5% | 27.5% |
| Calculation of Free Cash Flow | |||||||||||
| Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | |||||||||||
| Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 | ||
| EBITDA | 2,848 | 3,034 | 3,188 | 3,396 | 3,900 | 4,037 | 4,117 | 4,200 | 4,284 | 4,369 | |
| Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| D&A | (293) | (310) | (343) | (189) | (494) | (511) | (522) | (532) | (543) | (553) | |
| EBIT | 2,555 | 2,724 | 2,845 | 3,207 | 3,406 | 3,525 | 3,596 | 3,668 | 3,741 | 3,816 | |
| Pro forma Taxes | (639) | (681) | (711) | (802) | (852) | (881) | (899) | (917) | (935) | (954) | |
| NOPAT | 1,865 | 1,916 | 2,043 | 2,134 | 2,405 | 2,555 | 2,644 | 2,697 | 2,751 | 2,806 | 2,862 |
| Capital Expenditures | (250) | (343) | (363) | (386) | (409) | (439) | (411) | (419) | (423) | (418) | (420) |
| NWC Investment | (4) | 12 | 27 | 26 | 38 | 48 | 26 | 15 | 15 | 16 | 16 |
| (+) D&A | 196 | 293 | 310 | 343 | 189 | 494 | 511 | 522 | 532 | 543 | 553 |
| Free Cash Flow | 1,808 | 1,878 | 2,017 | 2,117 | 2,223 | 2,658 | 2,769 | 2,814 | 2,875 | 2,946 | 3,011 |
| % Growth | 7% | 5% | 5% | 20% | 4% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 2% | ||