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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Discount Rate | 8.3% - 7.2% | 7.8% |
Perpetuity Growth Rate | 2.0% - 3.0% | 2.5% |
Fair Value | €3.44 - €5.30 | €4.20 |
Upside | -20.9% - 21.8% | -3.6% |
Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | |||||||
(GBP in millions) | Input Projections | ||||||
Fiscal Years Ending | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | |
Revenue | 11,233 | 11,221 | 11,698 | 12,211 | 12,871 | 13,444 | |
% Growth | -0.6% | -0.1% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 4.5% | |
EBITDA | 2,683 | 2,800 | 2,989 | 3,194 | 3,255 | 3,468 | |
% of Revenue | 23.9% | 24.9% | 25.6% | 26.2% | 25.3% | 25.8% |
Calculation of Free Cash Flow | |||||||
Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | |||||||
(GBP in millions) | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Terminal | |
EBITDA | 2,800 | 2,989 | 3,194 | 3,255 | 3,468 | 3,468 | |
Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
D&A | (307) | (315) | (358) | (129) | (52) | (428) | |
EBIT | 2,492 | 2,674 | 2,836 | 3,126 | 3,416 | 3,040 | |
Pro forma Taxes | (623) | (668) | (709) | (781) | (854) | (760) | |
NOPAT | 1,865 | 1,869 | 2,005 | 2,127 | 2,344 | 2,562 | 2,280 |
Capital Expenditures | (250) | (340) | (396) | (461) | (409) | (451) | (451) |
NWC Investment | (4) | (1) | 25 | 26 | 34 | 30 | 17 |
(+) D&A | 196 | 307 | 315 | 358 | 129 | 52 | 428 |
Free Cash Flow | 1,808 | 1,836 | 1,949 | 2,050 | 2,098 | 2,193 | 2,275 |
% Growth | 2% | 6% | 5% | 2% | 5% | 4% |