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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Discount Rate | 8.3% - 7.2% | 7.8% |
| Perpetuity Growth Rate | 2.0% - 3.0% | 2.5% |
| Fair Value | €3.50 - €5.16 | €4.18 |
| Upside | -19.4% - 18.7% | -4.0% |
| Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | ||||||||||||
| (GBP in millions) | Input Projections | |||||||||||
| Fiscal Years Ending | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 | |
| Revenue | 11,233 | 11,221 | 11,698 | 12,211 | 12,871 | 13,444 | 13,713 | 13,987 | 14,267 | 14,552 | 14,843 | |
| % Growth | -0.6% | -0.1% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | |
| EBITDA | 2,683 | 2,800 | 2,989 | 3,194 | 3,255 | 3,468 | 3,537 | 3,608 | 3,680 | 3,754 | 3,829 | |
| % of Revenue | 23.9% | 24.9% | 25.6% | 26.2% | 25.3% | 25.8% | 25.8% | 25.8% | 25.8% | 25.8% | 25.8% | |
| Calculation of Free Cash Flow | ||||||||||||
| Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | ||||||||||||
| (GBP in millions) | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 | Terminal | |
| EBITDA | 2,800 | 2,989 | 3,194 | 3,255 | 3,468 | 3,537 | 3,608 | 3,680 | 3,754 | 3,829 | 3,829 | |
| Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| D&A | (307) | (315) | (358) | (129) | (52) | (53) | (54) | (55) | (56) | (57) | (416) | |
| EBIT | 2,492 | 2,674 | 2,836 | 3,126 | 3,416 | 3,484 | 3,554 | 3,625 | 3,698 | 3,772 | 3,413 | |
| Pro forma Taxes | (623) | (668) | (709) | (781) | (854) | (871) | (889) | (906) | (924) | (943) | (853) | |
| NOPAT | 1,865 | 1,869 | 2,005 | 2,127 | 2,344 | 2,562 | 2,613 | 2,666 | 2,719 | 2,773 | 2,829 | 2,560 |
| Capital Expenditures | (250) | (340) | (396) | (461) | (409) | (451) | (440) | (433) | (441) | (438) | (438) | (438) |
| NWC Investment | (4) | (1) | 25 | 26 | 34 | 30 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 15 | 15 | 19 |
| (+) D&A | 196 | 307 | 315 | 358 | 129 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 416 |
| Free Cash Flow | 1,808 | 1,836 | 1,949 | 2,050 | 2,098 | 2,193 | 2,240 | 2,300 | 2,347 | 2,406 | 2,463 | 2,557 |
| % Growth | 2% | 6% | 5% | 2% | 5% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 4% | |