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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Discount Rate | 8.3% - 7.2% | 7.8% |
Terminal EBITDA Multiple | 11.7x - 13.7x | 12.7x |
Fair Value | €3.80 - €4.64 | €4.21 |
Upside | -14.3% - 4.7% | -5.0% |
Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | ||||||
(GBP in millions) | Input Projections | |||||
Fiscal Years Ending | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 |
Revenue | 11,233 | 11,221 | 11,698 | 12,211 | 12,871 | 13,444 |
% Growth | -0.6% | -0.1% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 4.5% |
EBITDA | 2,683 | 2,800 | 2,989 | 3,194 | 3,255 | 3,468 |
% of Revenue | 23.9% | 24.9% | 25.6% | 26.2% | 25.3% | 25.8% |
Calculation of Free Cash Flow | ||||||
Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | ||||||
(GBP in millions) | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | |
EBITDA | 2,800 | 2,989 | 3,194 | 3,255 | 3,468 | |
Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
D&A | (307) | (315) | (358) | (129) | (52) | |
EBIT | 2,492 | 2,674 | 2,836 | 3,126 | 3,416 | |
Pro forma Taxes | (623) | (668) | (709) | (781) | (854) | |
NOPAT | 1,865 | 1,869 | 2,005 | 2,127 | 2,344 | 2,562 |
Capital Expenditures | (250) | (340) | (396) | (461) | (409) | (451) |
NWC Investment | (4) | (1) | 25 | 26 | 34 | 30 |
(+) D&A | 196 | 307 | 315 | 358 | 129 | 52 |
Free Cash Flow | 1,808 | 1,836 | 1,949 | 2,050 | 2,098 | 2,193 |
% Growth | 2% | 6% | 5% | 2% | 5% |