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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBIT Multiple | 5.1x - 5.7x | 5.4x |
| Selected Fwd EBIT Multiple | 5.3x - 5.8x | 5.6x |
| Fair Value | €0.017 - €0.031 | €0.024 |
| Upside | 9.9% - 99.2% | 54.5% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| Beijing Gas Blue Sky Holdings Limited | 6828 | SEHK:6828 |
| Global Strategic Group Limited | 8007 | SEHK:8007 |
| Binhai Investment Company Limited | 2886 | SEHK:2886 |
| China Gas Holdings Limited | 384 | SEHK:384 |
| Guangdong Investment Limited | 270 | SEHK:270 |
| China Oil And Gas Group Limited | GPI1 | DB:GPI1 |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBIT Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| 6828 | 8007 | 2886 | 384 | 270 | GPI1 | ||
| SEHK:6828 | SEHK:8007 | SEHK:2886 | SEHK:384 | SEHK:270 | DB:GPI1 | ||
| Historical EBIT Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | NM- | NM- | 7.8% | -14.7% | 0.9% | 4.8% | |
| 3Y CAGR | NM- | NM- | -9.7% | -16.8% | -5.0% | -14.6% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | -14.5% | 241.3% | -24.4% | 2.2% | 38.9% | 32.0% | |
| Historical EBIT Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | -13.0% | -23.7% | 9.4% | 11.2% | 28.3% | 9.1% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | -4.4% | -9.8% | 8.4% | 6.9% | 32.9% | 5.6% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | -5.8% | -1.0% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 37.1% | 7.7% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | -5.8% | 3.1% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 37.0% | 7.7% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 0.68x | 1.04x | 0.71x | 1.03x | 3.99x | 0.39x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | -42.3x | 8.8x | 7.2x | 9.9x | 8.0x | 3.3x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | -11.6x | 33.6x | 10.7x | 14.4x | 10.8x | 5.0x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBIT | -11.6x | 10.8x | 33.6x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBIT | 4.5x | 5.3x | 9.7x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBIT | 5.1x | 5.4x | 5.7x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBIT | 1,366 | 1,366 | 1,366 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 7,015 | 7,384 | 7,753 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (6,107) | (6,107) | (6,107) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 908 | 1,277 | 1,646 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 5,943.6 | 5,943.6 | 5,943.6 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 0.15 | 0.21 | 0.28 | ||||
| FX Rate: HKD/EUR | 9.0 | 9.0 | 9.0 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.02 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | 9.8% | 54.5% | 99.1% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | 6828 | 8007 | 2886 | 384 | 270 | GPI1 | |
| Enterprise Value | 1,202 | 292 | 4,370 | 81,996 | 58,667 | 6,934 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 360 | 13 | 387 | 8,909 | 12,154 | 4,348 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 1,993 | 0 | 322 | 22,361 | 0 | 1,675 | |
| (-) Debt | (2,348) | (157) | (3,342) | (60,476) | (24,664) | (8,575) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (124) | (100) | (82) | (6,862) | 0 | (3,554) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | (144) | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 1,083 | 47 | 1,511 | 45,928 | 46,157 | 827 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 22,736.1 | 188.6 | 1,373.7 | 5,448.2 | 6,537.8 | 5,943.6 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 0.05 | 0.25 | 1.10 | 8.43 | 7.06 | 0.14 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 0.92 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 8.97 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 0.05 | 0.25 | 1.10 | 8.43 | 7.06 | 0.02 | |
| Trading Currency | HKD | HKD | HKD | HKD | HKD | EUR | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 0.92 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 8.97 | |