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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Discount Rate | 10.3% - 9.3% | 9.8% |
Perpetuity Growth Rate | 2.8% - 3.8% | 3.3% |
Fair Value | €29.46 - €40.09 | €33.98 |
Upside | 9.9% - 49.6% | 26.8% |
Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | ||||||||||||
(USD in millions) | Input Projections | |||||||||||
Fiscal Years Ending | Sep-24 | Sep-25 | Sep-26 | Sep-27 | Sep-28 | Sep-29 | Sep-30 | Sep-31 | Sep-32 | Sep-33 | Sep-34 | |
Revenue | 3,200 | 3,107 | 3,151 | 3,223 | 3,439 | 3,549 | 3,619 | 3,692 | 3,766 | 3,841 | 3,918 | |
% Growth | -3.3% | -2.9% | 1.4% | 2.3% | 6.7% | 3.2% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | |
EBITDA | 313 | 364 | 376 | 329 | 386 | 398 | 406 | 414 | 423 | 431 | 440 | |
% of Revenue | 9.8% | 11.7% | 11.9% | 10.2% | 11.2% | 11.2% | 11.2% | 11.2% | 11.2% | 11.2% | 11.2% |
Calculation of Free Cash Flow | ||||||||||||
Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | ||||||||||||
(USD in millions) | Sep-25 | Sep-26 | Sep-27 | Sep-28 | Sep-29 | Sep-30 | Sep-31 | Sep-32 | Sep-33 | Sep-34 | Terminal | |
EBITDA | 364 | 376 | 329 | 386 | 398 | 406 | 414 | 423 | 431 | 440 | 440 | |
Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
D&A | (111) | (117) | (52) | (69) | (59) | (60) | (61) | (62) | (64) | (65) | (63) | |
EBIT | 253 | 259 | 277 | 317 | 339 | 346 | 353 | 360 | 367 | 375 | 376 | |
Pro forma Taxes | (56) | (57) | (61) | (70) | (75) | (76) | (78) | (79) | (81) | (82) | (83) | |
NOPAT | 174 | 197 | 202 | 216 | 247 | 265 | 270 | 275 | 281 | 286 | 292 | 293 |
Capital Expenditures | (43) | (50) | (55) | (56) | (69) | (71) | (65) | (66) | (68) | (66) | (67) | (67) |
NWC Investment | 27 | 23 | (11) | (18) | (54) | (27) | (18) | (18) | (18) | (19) | (19) | (32) |
(+) D&A | 91 | 111 | 117 | 52 | 69 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 64 | 65 | 63 |
Free Cash Flow | 249 | 281 | 253 | 195 | 194 | 225 | 247 | 252 | 257 | 265 | 271 | 258 |
% Growth | 13% | -10% | -23% | -1% | 16% | 10% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 2% | -5% |