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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Discount Rate | 8.8% - 7.8% | 8.3% |
Terminal EBITDA Multiple | 5.1x - 7.1x | 6.1x |
Fair Value | €1.38 - €1.87 | €1.62 |
Upside | 46.5% - 98.7% | 72.1% |
Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | ||||||
(MXN in millions) | Input Projections | |||||
Fiscal Years Ending | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 |
Revenue | 18,607 | 19,410 | 20,738 | 22,100 | 24,379 | 27,127 |
% Growth | 13.0% | 4.3% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 10.3% | 11.3% |
EBITDA | 4,342 | 4,626 | 4,993 | 5,400 | 5,908 | 6,564 |
% of Revenue | 23.3% | 23.8% | 24.1% | 24.4% | 24.2% | 24.2% |
Calculation of Free Cash Flow | ||||||
Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | ||||||
(MXN in millions) | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | |
EBITDA | 4,626 | 4,993 | 5,400 | 5,908 | 6,564 | |
Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
D&A | (335) | (346) | (386) | (379) | (629) | |
EBIT | 4,291 | 4,647 | 5,015 | 5,529 | 5,935 | |
Pro forma Taxes | (1,545) | (1,673) | (1,805) | (1,990) | (2,137) | |
NOPAT | 2,549 | 2,746 | 2,974 | 3,209 | 3,539 | 3,798 |
Capital Expenditures | (271) | (207) | (262) | (236) | (239) | (242) |
NWC Investment | (663) | (249) | (411) | (422) | (706) | (851) |
(+) D&A | 360 | 335 | 346 | 386 | 379 | 629 |
Free Cash Flow | 1,975 | 2,625 | 2,647 | 2,937 | 2,972 | 3,334 |
% Growth | 33% | 1% | 11% | 1% | 12% |