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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Selected LTM Revenue Multiple | 0.5x - 0.6x | 0.6x |
Selected Fwd Revenue Multiple | 0.5x - 0.5x | 0.5x |
Fair Value | €1.72 - €1.96 | €1.84 |
Upside | 18.6% - 35.0% | 26.8% |
Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
---|---|---|
Heineken Holding N.V. | 0NBD | LSE:0NBD |
Pernod Ricard SA | 0HAT | LSE:0HAT |
Olvi Oyj | 0FHS | LSE:0FHS |
Royal Unibrew A/S | 0R6Z | LSE:0R6Z |
Carlsberg A/S | 0AI3 | LSE:0AI3 |
C&C Group plc | GCC | DB:GCC |
Select LTM Revenue Multiple | ||||||||
Benchmark Companies | ||||||||
0NBD | 0HAT | 0FHS | 0R6Z | 0AI3 | GCC | |||
LSE:0NBD | LSE:0HAT | LSE:0FHS | LSE:0R6Z | LSE:0AI3 | DB:GCC | |||
Historical Revenue Growth | ||||||||
5Y CAGR | 4.5% | 4.8% | 10.0% | 14.3% | 2.6% | 1.0% | ||
3Y CAGR | 10.8% | 9.5% | 12.4% | 19.8% | 7.7% | 30.9% | ||
Latest Twelve Months | -1.8% | -3.7% | 4.2% | 16.3% | 1.9% | 0.1% | ||
Historical EBIT Profit Margin | ||||||||
5 Year Average Margin | 13.2% | 27.3% | 11.6% | 16.1% | 15.2% | 1.9% | ||
Prior Fiscal Year | 12.7% | 27.5% | 8.8% | 12.5% | 14.1% | 4.2% | ||
Latest Fiscal Year | 13.1% | 26.7% | 12.4% | 13.1% | 14.2% | 2.8% | ||
Latest Twelve Months | 13.1% | 26.2% | 12.4% | 13.1% | 14.2% | 2.9% | ||
Current Trading Multiples | ||||||||
EV / LTM Revenue | 1.41x | 3.11x | 0.99x | 2.25x | 1.88x | 0.45x | ||
EV / LTM EBIT | 10.8x | 11.9x | 8.0x | 17.2x | 13.2x | 15.4x | ||
Price / LTM Sales | 0.62x | 1.99x | 1.05x | 1.87x | 1.55x | 0.33x | ||
Low | Mid | High | ||||||
Benchmark EV / LTM Revenue | 0.99x | 1.88x | 3.11x | |||||
Historical EV / LTM Revenue | 0.50x | 0.90x | 1.32x | |||||
Selected EV / LTM Revenue | 0.52x | 0.55x | 0.58x | |||||
(x) LTM Revenue | 1,649 | 1,649 | 1,649 | |||||
(=) Implied Enterprise Value | 866 | 911 | 957 | |||||
(-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (202) | (202) | (202) | |||||
(=) Equity Value | 663 | 709 | 755 | |||||
(/) Shares Outstanding | 377.2 | 377.2 | 377.2 | |||||
Implied Value Range | 1.76 | 1.88 | 2.00 | |||||
FX Rate: EUR/EUR | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | ||||
Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 1.76 | 1.88 | 2.00 | 1.45 | ||||
Upside / (Downside) | 21.3% | 29.6% | 38.0% |
Equity Waterfall | |||||||
Benchmark Companies | |||||||
(in millions) | 0NBD | 0HAT | 0FHS | 0R6Z | 0AI3 | GCC | |
Enterprise Value | 42,292 | 34,841 | 683 | 33,779 | 123,244 | 749 | |
(+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 2,350 | 1,916 | 51 | 103 | 11,601 | 143 | |
(+) Investments & Other | 3,681 | 649 | 2 | 31 | 4,674 | 1 | |
(-) Debt | (17,049) | (13,942) | (10) | (5,799) | (38,140) | (347) | |
(-) Other Liabilities | (12,558) | (1,089) | (1) | 0 | (2,841) | 0 | |
(-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
(-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Value of Common Equity | 18,716 | 22,375 | 724 | 28,114 | 98,538 | 547 | |
(/) Shares Outstanding | 282.9 | 251.6 | 20.7 | 50.0 | 105.1 | 377.2 | |
Implied Stock Price | 66.16 | 88.92 | 34.95 | 562.00 | 938.00 | 1.45 | |
FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 66.16 | 88.92 | 34.95 | 562.00 | 938.00 | 1.45 | |
Trading Currency | EUR | EUR | EUR | DKK | DKK | EUR | |
FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |