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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 9.4x - 10.4x | 9.9x |
| Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 7.0x - 7.8x | 7.4x |
| Fair Value | €1.56 - €1.78 | €1.67 |
| Upside | 7.6% - 22.8% | 15.2% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| Heineken Holding N.V. | 0NBD | LSE:0NBD |
| Pernod Ricard SA | 0HAT | LSE:0HAT |
| Olvi Oyj | 0FHS | LSE:0FHS |
| Royal Unibrew A/S | 0R6Z | LSE:0R6Z |
| Carlsberg A/S | 0AI3 | LSE:0AI3 |
| C&C Group plc | GCC | DB:GCC |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| 0NBD | 0HAT | 0FHS | 0R6Z | 0AI3 | GCC | ||
| LSE:0NBD | LSE:0HAT | LSE:0FHS | LSE:0R6Z | LSE:0AI3 | DB:GCC | ||
| Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 1.9% | 4.1% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 0.4% | -7.9% | |
| 3Y CAGR | 6.7% | 9.8% | 7.3% | 8.7% | 1.8% | NM- | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 3.6% | -6.7% | 33.4% | 19.9% | 3.4% | -4.0% | |
| Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 19.7% | 29.8% | 17.5% | 20.5% | 21.1% | 4.1% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 18.3% | 30.9% | 12.5% | 17.0% | 18.9% | 6.2% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 19.3% | 29.5% | 16.0% | 17.5% | 19.2% | 4.8% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 19.3% | 29.1% | 16.0% | 17.5% | 19.2% | 5.1% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 1.41x | 3.11x | 0.99x | 2.25x | 1.88x | 0.45x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 7.3x | 10.7x | 6.2x | 12.8x | 9.8x | 9.0x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 10.8x | 11.9x | 8.0x | 17.2x | 13.2x | 15.4x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | 6.2x | 9.8x | 12.8x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | 7.7x | 11.3x | 156.1x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 9.4x | 9.9x | 10.4x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBITDA | 83 | 83 | 83 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 785 | 827 | 868 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (202) | (202) | (202) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 583 | 625 | 666 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 377.2 | 377.2 | 377.2 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 1.55 | 1.66 | 1.77 | ||||
| FX Rate: EUR/EUR | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 1.55 | 1.66 | 1.77 | 1.45 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | 6.6% | 14.2% | 21.7% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | 0NBD | 0HAT | 0FHS | 0R6Z | 0AI3 | GCC | |
| Enterprise Value | 42,292 | 34,841 | 683 | 33,779 | 123,244 | 749 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 2,350 | 1,916 | 51 | 103 | 11,601 | 143 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 3,681 | 649 | 2 | 31 | 4,674 | 1 | |
| (-) Debt | (17,049) | (13,942) | (10) | (5,799) | (38,140) | (347) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (12,558) | (1,089) | (1) | 0 | (2,841) | 0 | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 18,716 | 22,375 | 724 | 28,114 | 98,538 | 547 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 282.9 | 251.6 | 20.7 | 50.0 | 105.1 | 377.2 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 66.16 | 88.92 | 34.95 | 562.00 | 938.00 | 1.45 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 66.16 | 88.92 | 34.95 | 562.00 | 938.00 | 1.45 | |
| Trading Currency | EUR | EUR | EUR | DKK | DKK | EUR | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |