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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Discount Rate | 9.3% - 8.3% | 8.8% |
| Perpetuity Growth Rate | 2.3% - 3.3% | 2.8% |
| Fair Value | €2.38 - €3.10 | €2.68 |
| Upside | -11.5% - 15.4% | -0.3% |
| Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | |||||||
| (CNY in millions) | Input Projections | ||||||
| Fiscal Years Ending | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | |
| Revenue | 121,299 | 132,543 | 144,019 | 148,271 | 154,870 | 165,500 | |
| % Growth | -2.4% | 9.3% | 8.7% | 3.0% | 4.5% | 6.9% | |
| EBITDA | 12,169 | 14,360 | 14,975 | 15,708 | 16,094 | 17,375 | |
| % of Revenue | 10.0% | 10.8% | 10.4% | 10.6% | 10.4% | 10.5% | |
| Calculation of Free Cash Flow | |||||||
| Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | |||||||
| (CNY in millions) | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Terminal | |
| EBITDA | 14,360 | 14,975 | 15,708 | 16,094 | 17,375 | 17,375 | |
| Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| D&A | (4,989) | (4,364) | (4,084) | (5,802) | (5,689) | (5,188) | |
| EBIT | 9,371 | 10,612 | 11,624 | 10,292 | 11,686 | 12,187 | |
| Pro forma Taxes | (1,031) | (1,167) | (1,279) | (1,132) | (1,285) | (1,341) | |
| NOPAT | 8,836 | 8,340 | 9,445 | 10,346 | 9,160 | 10,401 | 10,846 |
| Capital Expenditures | (4,015) | (5,080) | (4,600) | (5,100) | (5,111) | (5,461) | (5,461) |
| NWC Investment | 345 | (1,313) | (1,340) | (497) | (771) | (1,241) | (532) |
| (+) D&A | 2,241 | 4,989 | 4,364 | 4,084 | 5,802 | 5,689 | 5,188 |
| Free Cash Flow | 7,407 | 6,935 | 7,868 | 8,833 | 9,080 | 9,387 | 10,042 |
| % Growth | -6% | 13% | 12% | 3% | 3% | 7% | |