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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Selected LTM Revenue Multiple | 1.8x - 2.0x | 1.9x |
Selected Fwd Revenue Multiple | 1.9x - 2.1x | 2.0x |
Fair Value | €11.65 - €12.78 | €12.21 |
Upside | -25.4% - -18.1% | -21.7% |
Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
---|---|---|
EVN AG | EVN | DB:EVN |
Endesa, S.A. | ELE | BME:ELE |
AB Ignitis grupe | IGN1L | NSEL:IGN1L |
PG&E Corporation | PCG | BRSE:PCG |
Energa SA | ENG | WSE:ENG |
Fortum Oyj | FOT | DB:FOT |
Select LTM Revenue Multiple | ||||||||
Benchmark Companies | ||||||||
EVN | ELE | IGN1L | PCG | ENG | FOT | |||
DB:EVN | BME:ELE | NSEL:IGN1L | BRSE:PCG | WSE:ENG | DB:FOT | |||
Historical Revenue Growth | ||||||||
5Y CAGR | 8.1% | 1.7% | 16.4% | 7.3% | 12.7% | 1.3% | ||
3Y CAGR | 10.7% | 0.7% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 14.8% | -3.3% | ||
Latest Twelve Months | 5.3% | -8.1% | 6.7% | 1.9% | -0.9% | -16.0% | ||
Historical EBIT Profit Margin | ||||||||
5 Year Average Margin | 10.8% | 11.2% | 13.2% | 15.8% | 8.2% | 15.1% | ||
Prior Fiscal Year | 15.3% | 6.6% | 13.9% | 14.1% | 7.6% | 23.0% | ||
Latest Fiscal Year | 12.1% | 13.8% | 15.4% | 21.0% | 8.3% | 19.3% | ||
Latest Twelve Months | 10.4% | 14.9% | 13.1% | 20.8% | 8.3% | 19.3% | ||
Current Trading Multiples | ||||||||
EV / LTM Revenue | 0.44x | 1.82x | 1.26x | 3.64x | 0.78x | 2.45x | ||
EV / LTM EBIT | 4.3x | 12.2x | 9.6x | 17.5x | 9.4x | 12.7x | ||
Price / LTM Sales | 1.26x | 1.29x | 0.62x | 1.20x | 0.25x | 2.60x | ||
Low | Mid | High | ||||||
Benchmark EV / LTM Revenue | 0.44x | 1.26x | 3.64x | |||||
Historical EV / LTM Revenue | 0.84x | 1.66x | 2.76x | |||||
Selected EV / LTM Revenue | 1.79x | 1.88x | 1.97x | |||||
(x) LTM Revenue | 5,427 | 5,427 | 5,427 | |||||
(=) Implied Enterprise Value | 9,693 | 10,204 | 10,714 | |||||
(-) Non-shareholder Claims * | 798 | 798 | 798 | |||||
(=) Equity Value | 10,491 | 11,002 | 11,512 | |||||
(/) Shares Outstanding | 897.3 | 897.3 | 897.3 | |||||
Implied Value Range | 11.69 | 12.26 | 12.83 | |||||
FX Rate: EUR/EUR | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | ||||
Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 11.69 | 12.26 | 12.83 | 15.60 | ||||
Upside / (Downside) | -25.0% | -21.4% | -17.8% |
Equity Waterfall | |||||||
Benchmark Companies | |||||||
(in millions) | EVN | ELE | IGN1L | PCG | ENG | FOT | |
Enterprise Value | 886 | 38,424 | 3,056 | 110,556 | 16,607 | 13,199 | |
(+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 199 | 92 | 283 | 2,023 | 1,763 | 4,332 | |
(+) Investments & Other | 4,838 | 291 | 36 | 0 | 97 | 1,509 | |
(-) Debt | (1,313) | (10,469) | (1,876) | (59,968) | (12,284) | (4,963) | |
(-) Other Liabilities | (340) | (918) | 0 | (252) | (883) | (80) | |
(-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | (1,579) | 0 | 0 | |
(-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Value of Common Equity | 4,270 | 27,420 | 1,498 | 50,780 | 5,300 | 13,997 | |
(/) Shares Outstanding | 178.3 | 1,058.3 | 72.4 | 2,197.7 | 414.1 | 897.3 | |
Implied Stock Price | 23.95 | 25.91 | 20.70 | 23.11 | 12.80 | 15.60 | |
FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.25 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 23.95 | 25.91 | 20.70 | 18.52 | 12.80 | 15.60 | |
Trading Currency | EUR | EUR | EUR | CHF | PLN | EUR | |
FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.25 | 1.00 | 1.00 |