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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Discount Rate | 9.3% - 8.3% | 8.8% |
| Terminal Revenue Multiple | 1.0x - 1.1x | 1.0x |
| Fair Value | €60.16 - €67.51 | €63.73 |
| Upside | 24.6% - 39.8% | 31.9% |
| Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | |||||||||||
| (EUR in millions) | Input Projections | ||||||||||
| Fiscal Years Ending | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
| Revenue | 17,763 | 18,873 | 20,394 | 21,949 | 23,803 | 28,339 | 31,881 | 34,272 | 35,472 | 36,181 | 36,905 |
| % Growth | 16.2% | 6.3% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 19.1% | 12.5% | 7.5% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
| EBITDA | 1,862 | 2,379 | 2,633 | 2,910 | 3,282 | 5,324 | 6,308 | 6,953 | 7,196 | 7,340 | 7,487 |
| % of Revenue | 10.5% | 12.6% | 12.9% | 13.3% | 13.8% | 18.8% | 19.8% | 20.3% | 20.3% | 20.3% | 20.3% |
| Calculation of Free Cash Flow | |||||||||||
| Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | |||||||||||
| Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 | ||
| EBITDA | 2,379 | 2,633 | 2,910 | 3,282 | 5,324 | 6,308 | 6,953 | 7,196 | 7,340 | 7,487 | |
| Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| D&A | (702) | (690) | (659) | (553) | (1,939) | (2,181) | (2,345) | (2,427) | (2,475) | (2,525) | |
| EBIT | 1,677 | 1,943 | 2,251 | 2,729 | 3,385 | 4,127 | 4,608 | 4,769 | 4,864 | 4,962 | |
| Pro forma Taxes | (235) | (272) | (315) | (382) | (474) | (578) | (645) | (668) | (681) | (695) | |
| NOPAT | 1,211 | 1,442 | 1,671 | 1,936 | 2,347 | 2,911 | 3,549 | 3,963 | 4,101 | 4,183 | 4,267 |
| Capital Expenditures | (895) | (1,040) | (1,000) | (1,049) | (1,149) | (1,506) | (1,235) | (1,297) | (1,342) | (1,291) | (1,310) |
| NWC Investment | 27 | 12 | 17 | 17 | 20 | 50 | 39 | 26 | 13 | 8 | 8 |
| (+) D&A | 454 | 702 | 690 | 659 | 553 | 1,939 | 2,181 | 2,345 | 2,427 | 2,475 | 2,525 |
| Free Cash Flow | 797 | 1,116 | 1,378 | 1,563 | 1,771 | 3,394 | 4,535 | 5,037 | 5,199 | 5,376 | 5,490 |
| % Growth | 23% | 13% | 13% | 92% | 34% | 11% | 3% | 3% | 2% | ||