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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM Revenue Multiple | 3.5x - 3.8x | 3.6x |
| Selected Fwd Revenue Multiple | 2.9x - 3.2x | 3.0x |
| Fair Value | €17.22 - €19.34 | €18.28 |
| Upside | -23.2% - -13.8% | -18.5% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
|---|---|---|
| Anglo American plc | AAL | LSE:AAL |
| Endeavour Mining plc | EDV | LSE:EDV |
| Central Asia Metals plc | CAML | AIM:CAML |
| Rio Tinto Group | RIO | LSE:RIO |
| Hochschild Mining plc | HOC | LSE:HOC |
| Antofagasta plc | FG1 | DB:FG1 |
| Select LTM Revenue Multiple | ||||||||
| Benchmark Companies | ||||||||
| AAL | EDV | CAML | RIO | HOC | FG1 | |||
| LSE:AAL | LSE:EDV | AIM:CAML | LSE:RIO | LSE:HOC | DB:FG1 | |||
| Historical Revenue Growth | ||||||||
| 5Y CAGR | -1.8% | 31.0% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 5.9% | ||
| 3Y CAGR | -13.1% | 0.4% | -1.4% | -5.5% | 5.3% | -4.0% | ||
| Latest Twelve Months | -11.0% | 54.1% | 5.4% | -0.7% | 36.6% | 4.6% | ||
| Historical EBIT Profit Margin | ||||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 27.9% | 21.2% | 41.8% | 34.6% | 16.2% | 30.9% | ||
| Prior Fiscal Year | 20.4% | 21.1% | 32.6% | 27.5% | 11.9% | 27.9% | ||
| Latest Fiscal Year | 18.0% | 14.1% | 32.2% | 26.1% | 23.8% | 24.5% | ||
| Latest Twelve Months | 18.0% | 23.6% | 32.2% | 26.1% | 23.8% | 24.5% | ||
| Current Trading Multiples | ||||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 1.93x | 2.54x | 1.31x | 2.06x | 2.27x | 4.50x | ||
| EV / LTM EBIT | 10.7x | 10.8x | 4.1x | 7.9x | 9.5x | 18.4x | ||
| Price / LTM Sales | 1.23x | 2.29x | 1.65x | 1.99x | 1.94x | 3.94x | ||
| Low | Mid | High | ||||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM Revenue | 1.31x | 2.06x | 2.54x | |||||
| Historical EV / LTM Revenue | 3.37x | 3.82x | 4.50x | |||||
| Selected EV / LTM Revenue | 3.46x | 3.64x | 3.82x | |||||
| (x) LTM Revenue | 6,613 | 6,613 | 6,613 | |||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 22,874 | 24,078 | 25,282 | |||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (3,333) | (3,333) | (3,333) | |||||
| (=) Equity Value | 19,541 | 20,745 | 21,949 | |||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 985.9 | 985.9 | 985.9 | |||||
| Implied Value Range | 19.82 | 21.04 | 22.26 | |||||
| FX Rate: USD/EUR | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | Market Price | ||||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 16.87 | 17.91 | 18.95 | 22.43 | ||||
| Upside / (Downside) | -24.8% | -20.2% | -15.5% | |||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | AAL | EDV | CAML | RIO | HOC | FG1 | |
| Enterprise Value | 51,724 | 8,391 | 290 | 106,359 | 2,155 | 29,318 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 8,203 | 737 | 67 | 8,865 | 97 | 4,316 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 987 | 0 | 4 | 5,355 | 16 | 1,788 | |
| (-) Debt | (18,972) | (1,162) | (2) | (14,222) | (319) | (5,945) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (7,773) | (337) | 1 | (2,719) | (76) | (3,492) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 34,169 | 7,630 | 361 | 103,638 | 1,873 | 25,984 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 1,079.1 | 241.8 | 174.6 | 1,624.9 | 514.5 | 985.9 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 31.66 | 31.55 | 2.07 | 63.78 | 3.64 | 26.36 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.35 | 1.35 | 1.35 | 1.35 | 1.35 | 1.18 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 23.40 | 23.32 | 1.53 | 47.14 | 2.69 | 22.43 | |
| Trading Currency | GBP | GBP | GBP | GBP | GBP | EUR | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.35 | 1.35 | 1.35 | 1.35 | 1.35 | 1.18 | |