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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 7.2x - 8.0x | 7.6x |
| Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 5.2x - 5.7x | 5.4x |
| Fair Value | €17.73 - €19.91 | €18.82 |
| Upside | -11.2% - -0.3% | -5.8% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| Anglo American plc | AAL | LSE:AAL |
| Central Asia Metals plc | CAML | AIM:CAML |
| Rio Tinto Group | RIO | LSE:RIO |
| Hochschild Mining plc | HOC | LSE:HOC |
| B2Gold Corp. | 0QYN | LSE:0QYN |
| Antofagasta plc | FG1 | DB:FG1 |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| AAL | CAML | RIO | HOC | 0QYN | FG1 | ||
| LSE:AAL | AIM:CAML | LSE:RIO | LSE:HOC | LSE:0QYN | DB:FG1 | ||
| Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | -2.8% | -2.1% | 0.0% | 5.2% | 8.2% | 6.7% | |
| 3Y CAGR | -27.0% | -11.6% | -17.5% | 4.4% | -5.2% | -12.4% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | -11.5% | 1.8% | -2.0% | 67.5% | 6.5% | 4.4% | |
| Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 35.8% | 56.6% | 43.3% | 35.6% | 54.9% | 48.7% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 28.2% | 47.1% | 36.0% | 33.0% | 45.0% | 45.8% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 28.1% | 45.5% | 35.5% | 40.5% | 48.7% | 45.7% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 28.1% | 45.5% | 35.5% | 40.5% | 48.7% | 45.7% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 1.88x | 1.33x | 1.95x | 2.35x | 2.07x | 3.78x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 6.7x | 2.9x | 5.5x | 5.8x | 4.3x | 8.3x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 10.3x | 4.1x | 7.5x | 9.9x | 7.0x | 15.5x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | 2.9x | 5.5x | 6.7x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | 6.9x | 8.3x | 8.4x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 7.2x | 7.6x | 8.0x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBITDA | 3,023 | 3,023 | 3,023 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 21,875 | 23,026 | 24,177 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (3,333) | (3,333) | (3,333) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 18,541 | 19,692 | 20,844 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 985.9 | 985.9 | 985.9 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 18.81 | 19.98 | 21.14 | ||||
| FX Rate: USD/EUR | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 16.61 | 17.64 | 18.67 | 19.97 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | -16.8% | -11.7% | -6.5% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | AAL | CAML | RIO | HOC | 0QYN | FG1 | |
| Enterprise Value | 51,217 | 285 | 98,301 | 2,141 | 4,002 | 25,627 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 8,203 | 67 | 8,865 | 97 | 349 | 4,316 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 987 | 4 | 5,355 | 16 | 168 | 1,788 | |
| (-) Debt | (18,842) | (2) | (14,222) | (319) | (438) | (5,945) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (7,773) | 1 | (2,719) | (76) | (53) | (3,492) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 33,792 | 356 | 95,580 | 1,858 | 4,028 | 22,294 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 1,213.4 | 174.6 | 1,624.6 | 514.5 | 1,319.6 | 985.9 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 27.85 | 2.04 | 58.83 | 3.61 | 3.05 | 22.61 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.33 | 1.33 | 1.33 | 1.33 | 0.73 | 1.13 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 20.97 | 1.53 | 44.30 | 2.72 | 4.21 | 19.97 | |
| Trading Currency | GBP | GBP | GBP | GBP | CAD | EUR | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.33 | 1.33 | 1.33 | 1.33 | 0.73 | 1.13 | |