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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBIT Multiple | 14.2x - 15.7x | 15.0x |
| Selected Fwd EBIT Multiple | 8.2x - 9.1x | 8.6x |
| Fair Value | €17.77 - €19.94 | €18.86 |
| Upside | -21.9% - -12.4% | -17.2% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| Anglo American plc | AAL | LSE:AAL |
| Endeavour Mining plc | EDV | LSE:EDV |
| Central Asia Metals plc | CAML | AIM:CAML |
| Rio Tinto Group | RIO | LSE:RIO |
| Hochschild Mining plc | HOC | LSE:HOC |
| Antofagasta plc | FG1 | DB:FG1 |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBIT Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| AAL | EDV | CAML | RIO | HOC | FG1 | ||
| LSE:AAL | LSE:EDV | AIM:CAML | LSE:RIO | LSE:HOC | DB:FG1 | ||
| Historical EBIT Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | -4.8% | NM- | -2.5% | -1.1% | 14.9% | 3.6% | |
| 3Y CAGR | -34.2% | -10.0% | -14.8% | -22.0% | 6.3% | -22.1% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | -22.6% | 210.2% | 3.8% | -11.7% | 173.1% | -8.4% | |
| Historical EBIT Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 27.7% | 22.4% | 41.8% | 34.0% | 16.2% | 30.9% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 20.4% | 21.1% | 32.6% | 27.5% | 11.9% | 27.9% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 18.0% | 14.1% | 32.2% | 26.1% | 23.8% | 24.5% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 15.7% | 29.8% | 32.2% | 24.2% | 23.8% | 24.5% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 1.69x | 2.41x | 1.36x | 2.15x | 2.55x | 4.52x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 6.5x | 4.4x | 3.0x | 6.3x | 6.3x | 9.9x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 10.8x | 8.1x | 4.2x | 8.9x | 10.7x | 18.5x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBIT | 4.2x | 8.9x | 10.8x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBIT | 10.7x | 13.6x | 18.5x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBIT | 14.2x | 15.0x | 15.7x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBIT | 1,619 | 1,619 | 1,619 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 23,012 | 24,223 | 25,434 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (3,333) | (3,333) | (3,333) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 19,679 | 20,890 | 22,101 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 985.9 | 985.9 | 985.9 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 19.96 | 21.19 | 22.42 | ||||
| FX Rate: USD/EUR | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 17.12 | 18.17 | 19.23 | 22.76 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | -24.8% | -20.2% | -15.5% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | AAL | EDV | CAML | RIO | HOC | FG1 | |
| Enterprise Value | 45,417 | 8,911 | 292 | 110,915 | 2,396 | 29,497 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 8,139 | 641 | 67 | 9,334 | 97 | 4,316 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 791 | 0 | 4 | 5,436 | 16 | 1,788 | |
| (-) Debt | (16,991) | (1,183) | (2) | (23,640) | (319) | (5,945) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (6,240) | (294) | 1 | (3,764) | (76) | (3,492) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 31,116 | 8,074 | 363 | 98,281 | 2,113 | 26,164 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 1,079.1 | 241.8 | 174.6 | 1,625.1 | 514.5 | 985.9 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 28.83 | 33.39 | 2.08 | 60.48 | 4.11 | 26.54 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.34 | 1.34 | 1.34 | 1.34 | 1.34 | 1.17 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 21.45 | 24.84 | 1.55 | 44.99 | 3.06 | 22.76 | |
| Trading Currency | GBP | GBP | GBP | GBP | GBP | EUR | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.34 | 1.34 | 1.34 | 1.34 | 1.34 | 1.17 | |