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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 8.2x - 9.0x | 8.6x |
| Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 7.8x - 8.6x | 8.2x |
| Fair Value | €210.44 - €244.75 | €227.59 |
| Upside | 14.3% - 32.9% | 23.6% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| United Parcel Service, Inc. | UPS | NYSE:UPS |
| Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. | EXPD | NYSE:EXPD |
| Hub Group, Inc. | HUBG | NasdaqGS:HUBG |
| Forward Air Corporation | FWRD | NasdaqGS:FWRD |
| Landstar System, Inc. | LSTR | NasdaqGS:LSTR |
| FedEx Corporation | FDX | DB:FDX |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| UPS | EXPD | HUBG | FWRD | LSTR | FDX | ||
| NYSE:UPS | NYSE:EXPD | NasdaqGS:HUBG | NasdaqGS:FWRD | NasdaqGS:LSTR | DB:FDX | ||
| Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 2.7% | 6.2% | 4.1% | 5.0% | -2.3% | 17.9% | |
| 3Y CAGR | -9.8% | -17.5% | -1.5% | 1.5% | -18.1% | -1.4% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | -6.0% | 9.4% | -14.7% | -6.3% | -23.6% | -2.4% | |
| Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 14.8% | 10.9% | 8.8% | 12.2% | 7.9% | 11.7% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 14.1% | 10.8% | 9.3% | 14.6% | 7.5% | 11.8% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 12.8% | 10.4% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 12.8% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 12.8% | 10.4% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 12.5% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 1.13x | 1.40x | 0.63x | 1.07x | 0.87x | 0.93x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 8.8x | 13.4x | 7.4x | 14.2x | 13.9x | 7.5x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 12.8x | 14.2x | 17.4x | 56.6x | 17.0x | 12.3x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | 7.4x | 13.4x | 14.2x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | 7.3x | 9.6x | 16.4x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 8.2x | 8.6x | 9.0x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBITDA | 10,992 | 10,992 | 10,992 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 89,994 | 94,730 | 99,467 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (31,377) | (31,377) | (31,377) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 58,617 | 63,353 | 68,090 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 239.6 | 239.6 | 239.6 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 244.65 | 264.41 | 284.18 | ||||
| FX Rate: USD/EUR | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 215.80 | 233.24 | 250.68 | 184.14 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | 17.2% | 26.7% | 36.1% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | UPS | EXPD | HUBG | FWRD | LSTR | FDX | |
| Enterprise Value | 100,730 | 14,523 | 2,417 | 2,635 | 4,134 | 81,394 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 5,065 | 1,148 | 98 | 105 | 567 | 5,207 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 92 | 447 | |
| (-) Debt | (25,594) | (569) | (509) | (2,146) | (164) | (37,031) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (24) | (3) | (47) | (84) | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 80,177 | 15,100 | 1,960 | 510 | 4,629 | 50,017 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 847.5 | 137.8 | 61.3 | 30.4 | 34.9 | 239.6 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 94.60 | 109.61 | 31.99 | 16.79 | 132.45 | 208.75 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.13 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 94.60 | 109.61 | 31.99 | 16.79 | 132.45 | 184.14 | |
| Trading Currency | USD | USD | USD | USD | USD | EUR | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.13 | |