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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Discount Rate | 9.0% - 8.0% | 8.5% |
| Terminal Revenue Multiple | 3.5x - 3.8x | 3.6x |
| Fair Value | €214.20 - €248.86 | €230.95 |
| Upside | -21.5% - -8.8% | -15.4% |
| Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | |||||||||||
| (EUR in millions) | Input Projections | ||||||||||
| Fiscal Years Ending | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
| Revenue | 26,508 | 28,859 | 30,826 | 33,232 | 35,328 | 38,142 | 41,060 | 42,497 | 43,347 | 44,214 | 45,099 |
| % Growth | 4.4% | 8.9% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
| EBITDA | 5,562 | 7,423 | 8,168 | 9,065 | 9,288 | 9,930 | 10,615 | 10,987 | 11,206 | 11,430 | 11,659 |
| % of Revenue | 21.0% | 25.7% | 26.5% | 27.3% | 26.3% | 26.0% | 25.9% | 25.9% | 25.9% | 25.9% | 25.9% |
| Calculation of Free Cash Flow | |||||||||||
| Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | |||||||||||
| Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 | ||
| EBITDA | 7,423 | 8,168 | 9,065 | 9,288 | 9,930 | 10,615 | 10,987 | 11,206 | 11,430 | 11,659 | |
| Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| D&A | (2,353) | (2,531) | (2,832) | (2,330) | (2,430) | (2,616) | (2,708) | (2,762) | (2,817) | (2,873) | |
| EBIT | 5,070 | 5,636 | 6,233 | 6,958 | 7,500 | 7,999 | 8,279 | 8,444 | 8,613 | 8,786 | |
| Pro forma Taxes | (1,217) | (1,353) | (1,496) | (1,670) | (1,800) | (1,920) | (1,987) | (2,027) | (2,067) | (2,109) | |
| NOPAT | 2,646 | 3,854 | 4,284 | 4,737 | 5,288 | 5,700 | 6,079 | 6,292 | 6,418 | 6,546 | 6,677 |
| Capital Expenditures | (1,522) | (1,596) | (1,695) | (1,751) | (1,888) | (2,039) | (1,893) | (1,940) | (1,957) | (1,930) | (1,942) |
| NWC Investment | (29) | (61) | (51) | (63) | (55) | (74) | (76) | (38) | (22) | (23) | (23) |
| (+) D&A | 2,081 | 2,353 | 2,531 | 2,832 | 2,330 | 2,430 | 2,616 | 2,708 | 2,762 | 2,817 | 2,873 |
| Free Cash Flow | 3,175 | 4,549 | 5,069 | 5,755 | 5,675 | 6,017 | 6,726 | 7,022 | 7,200 | 7,411 | 7,585 |
| % Growth | 11% | 14% | -1% | 6% | 12% | 4% | 3% | 3% | 2% | ||