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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Discount Rate | 8.5% - 7.5% | 8.0% |
| Perpetuity Growth Rate | 3.3% - 4.3% | 3.8% |
| Fair Value | €46.21 - €65.06 | €53.42 |
| Upside | -15.2% - 19.4% | -2.0% |
| Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | |||||||
| (JPY in millions) | Input Projections | ||||||
| Fiscal Years Ending | Mar-25 | Mar-26 | Mar-27 | Mar-28 | Mar-29 | Mar-30 | |
| Revenue | 324,506 | 326,900 | 320,323 | 340,000 | 349,300 | 374,800 | |
| % Growth | -8.9% | 0.7% | -2.0% | 6.1% | 2.7% | 7.3% | |
| EBITDA | 49,050 | 47,800 | 51,462 | 57,300 | 58,732 | 66,767 | |
| % of Revenue | 15.1% | 14.6% | 16.1% | 16.9% | 16.8% | 17.8% | |
| Calculation of Free Cash Flow | |||||||
| Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | |||||||
| (JPY in millions) | Mar-26 | Mar-27 | Mar-28 | Mar-29 | Mar-30 | Terminal | |
| EBITDA | 47,800 | 51,462 | 57,300 | 58,732 | 66,767 | 66,767 | |
| Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| D&A | (7,500) | (8,532) | (11,600) | (8,432) | (12,267) | (10,925) | |
| EBIT | 40,300 | 42,930 | 45,700 | 50,300 | 54,500 | 55,842 | |
| Pro forma Taxes | (10,478) | (11,162) | (11,882) | (13,078) | (14,170) | (14,519) | |
| NOPAT | 30,034 | 29,822 | 31,768 | 33,818 | 37,222 | 40,330 | 41,323 |
| Capital Expenditures | (10,870) | (9,000) | (10,500) | (11,207) | (11,792) | (11,500) | (11,500) |
| NWC Investment | 3,601 | (271) | 744 | (2,225) | (1,052) | (2,884) | (1,590) |
| (+) D&A | 8,463 | 7,500 | 8,532 | 11,600 | 8,432 | 12,267 | 10,925 |
| Free Cash Flow | 31,228 | 28,051 | 30,544 | 31,986 | 32,810 | 38,214 | 39,159 |
| % Growth | -10% | 9% | 5% | 3% | 16% | 2% | |