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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Discount Rate | 8.5% - 7.5% | 8.0% |
| Terminal EBITDA Multiple | 5.0x - 7.0x | 6.0x |
| Fair Value | €10.98 - €23.56 | €17.15 |
| Upside | -34.6% - 40.3% | 2.1% |
| Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | ||||||
| (JPY in millions) | Input Projections | |||||
| Fiscal Years Ending | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 |
| Revenue | 1,071,127 | 1,106,300 | 1,131,000 | 1,150,000 | 1,156,300 | 1,169,700 |
| % Growth | 3.1% | 3.3% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 1.2% |
| EBITDA | 98,452 | 107,900 | 112,400 | 115,000 | 117,700 | 120,600 |
| % of Revenue | 9.2% | 9.8% | 9.9% | 10.0% | 10.2% | 10.3% |
| Calculation of Free Cash Flow | ||||||
| Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | ||||||
| (JPY in millions) | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | |
| EBITDA | 107,900 | 112,400 | 115,000 | 117,700 | 120,600 | |
| Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| D&A | (57,400) | (57,000) | (57,000) | (57,000) | (57,000) | |
| EBIT | 50,500 | 55,400 | 58,000 | 60,700 | 63,600 | |
| Pro forma Taxes | (20,705) | (22,714) | (23,780) | (24,887) | (26,076) | |
| NOPAT | 26,267 | 29,795 | 32,686 | 34,220 | 35,813 | 37,524 |
| Capital Expenditures | (42,785) | (49,200) | (49,600) | (49,600) | (50,000) | (50,000) |
| NWC Investment | (9,366) | (10,170) | (7,142) | (5,494) | (1,822) | (3,875) |
| (+) D&A | 53,931 | 57,400 | 57,000 | 57,000 | 57,000 | 57,000 |
| Free Cash Flow | 28,048 | 27,825 | 32,944 | 36,126 | 40,991 | 40,649 |
| % Growth | -1% | 18% | 10% | 13% | -1% | |