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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Discount Rate | 7.8% - 6.7% | 7.2% |
| Terminal Revenue Multiple | 1.8x - 1.9x | 1.8x |
| Fair Value | €17 - €19.55 | €18.23 |
| Upside | 10.8% - 27.4% | 18.8% |
| Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | |||||||||||
| (JPY in millions) | Input Projections | ||||||||||
| Fiscal Years Ending | Mar-25 | Mar-26 | Mar-27 | Mar-28 | Mar-29 | Mar-30 | Mar-31 | Mar-32 | Mar-33 | Mar-34 | Mar-35 |
| Revenue | 5,917,953 | 6,055,500 | 6,194,400 | 6,460,588 | 6,604,000 | 6,906,500 | 7,044,630 | 7,185,523 | 7,329,233 | 7,475,818 | 7,625,334 |
| % Growth | 2.8% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 4.3% | 2.2% | 4.6% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
| EBITDA | 1,777,960 | 1,878,235 | 1,933,234 | 2,004,350 | 2,033,000 | 2,084,500 | 2,126,190 | 2,168,714 | 2,212,088 | 2,256,330 | 2,301,456 |
| % of Revenue | 30.0% | 31.0% | 31.2% | 31.0% | 30.8% | 30.2% | 30.2% | 30.2% | 30.2% | 30.2% | 30.2% |
| Calculation of Free Cash Flow | |||||||||||
| Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | |||||||||||
| Mar-26 | Mar-27 | Mar-28 | Mar-29 | Mar-30 | Mar-31 | Mar-32 | Mar-33 | Mar-34 | Mar-35 | ||
| EBITDA | 1,878,235 | 1,933,234 | 2,004,350 | 2,033,000 | 2,084,500 | 2,126,190 | 2,168,714 | 2,212,088 | 2,256,330 | 2,301,456 | |
| Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| D&A | (695,235) | (703,234) | (729,911) | (721,000) | (724,500) | (738,990) | (753,770) | (768,845) | (784,222) | (799,907) | |
| EBIT | 1,183,000 | 1,230,000 | 1,274,439 | 1,312,000 | 1,360,000 | 1,387,200 | 1,414,944 | 1,443,243 | 1,472,108 | 1,501,550 | |
| Pro forma Taxes | (378,560) | (393,600) | (407,820) | (419,840) | (435,200) | (443,904) | (452,782) | (461,838) | (471,074) | (480,496) | |
| NOPAT | 741,997 | 804,440 | 836,400 | 866,618 | 892,160 | 924,800 | 943,296 | 962,162 | 981,405 | 1,001,033 | 1,021,054 |
| Capital Expenditures | (400,947) | (682,538) | (720,000) | (735,046) | (722,553) | (720,000) | (725,866) | (722,806) | (722,891) | (723,855) | (723,184) |
| NWC Investment | 63,772 | 53,517 | 54,043 | 103,568 | 55,799 | 117,696 | 53,743 | 54,818 | 55,915 | 57,033 | 58,174 |
| (+) D&A | 686,788 | 695,235 | 703,234 | 729,911 | 721,000 | 724,500 | 738,990 | 753,770 | 768,845 | 784,222 | 799,907 |
| Free Cash Flow | 1,091,610 | 870,654 | 873,677 | 965,052 | 946,406 | 1,046,996 | 1,010,163 | 1,047,944 | 1,083,274 | 1,118,434 | 1,155,950 |
| % Growth | 0% | 10% | -2% | 11% | -4% | 4% | 3% | 3% | 3% | ||