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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBIT Multiple | 4.0x - 4.4x | 4.2x |
| Selected Fwd EBIT Multiple | 3.5x - 3.9x | 3.7x |
| Fair Value | €21.27 - €22.34 | €21.81 |
| Upside | 13.8% - 19.5% | 16.6% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| easyJet plc | EZJ | LSE:EZJ |
| International Consolidated Airlines Group S.A. | IAG | LSE:IAG |
| Ryanair Holdings plc | 0RYA | LSE:0RYA |
| Deutsche Lufthansa AG | 0H4A | LSE:0H4A |
| Air France-KLM SA | 0LN7 | LSE:0LN7 |
| Jet2 plc | DG1 | DB:DG1 |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBIT Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| EZJ | IAG | 0RYA | 0H4A | 0LN7 | DG1 | ||
| LSE:EZJ | LSE:IAG | LSE:0RYA | LSE:0H4A | LSE:0LN7 | DB:DG1 | ||
| Historical EBIT Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 5.1% | 6.5% | 6.7% | -2.8% | 7.0% | 8.8% | |
| 3Y CAGR | NM- | NM- | NM- | NM- | NM- | NM- | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 12.3% | 37.0% | 22.8% | 33.3% | 53.7% | 4.3% | |
| Historical EBIT Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | -21.3% | -14.3% | -0.6% | -7.0% | -7.4% | -13.2% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 5.6% | 12.3% | 15.3% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 6.8% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 6.4% | 14.1% | 11.2% | 3.4% | 5.0% | 6.2% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 5.9% | 15.2% | 14.4% | 3.8% | 6.1% | 6.2% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 0.34x | 0.76x | 1.69x | 0.34x | 0.44x | 0.18x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 3.8x | 4.1x | 7.5x | 3.8x | 4.0x | 2.2x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 5.7x | 5.0x | 11.8x | 8.8x | 7.2x | 2.9x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBIT | 5.0x | 7.2x | 11.8x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBIT | -10.9x | 2.8x | 4.2x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBIT | 4.0x | 4.2x | 4.4x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBIT | 447 | 447 | 447 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 1,784 | 1,878 | 1,972 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | 2,018 | 2,018 | 2,018 | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 3,802 | 3,896 | 3,990 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 207.3 | 207.3 | 207.3 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 18.35 | 18.80 | 19.25 | ||||
| FX Rate: GBP/EUR | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.9 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 21.01 | 21.53 | 22.05 | 18.70 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | 12.4% | 15.1% | 17.9% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | EZJ | IAG | 0RYA | 0H4A | 0LN7 | DG1 | |
| Enterprise Value | 3,260 | 25,087 | 22,716 | 13,008 | 12,806 | 1,366 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 3,622 | 9,348 | 4,348 | 8,590 | 6,314 | 3,156 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 43 | 284 | 0 | 1,235 | 205 | 0 | |
| (-) Debt | (3,295) | (14,807) | (2,324) | (14,021) | (14,280) | (1,138) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | 0 | (6) | 0 | (50) | (2,125) | 0 | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 3,630 | 19,906 | 24,740 | 8,762 | 2,920 | 3,384 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 750.9 | 4,645.9 | 1,060.6 | 1,198.3 | 262.6 | 207.3 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 4.83 | 4.28 | 23.33 | 7.31 | 11.12 | 16.33 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.15 | 1.15 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.87 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 4.83 | 3.74 | 20.37 | 7.31 | 11.12 | 18.70 | |
| Trading Currency | GBP | GBP | GBP | EUR | EUR | EUR | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.15 | 1.15 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.87 | |