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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Discount Rate | 8.5% - 7.5% | 8.0% |
Terminal EBITDA Multiple | 18.0x - 20.0x | 19.0x |
Fair Value | €240.97 - €283.02 | €261.28 |
Upside | -10.2% - 5.4% | -2.7% |
Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | |||||||||||
(EUR in millions) | Input Projections | ||||||||||
Fiscal Years Ending | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
Revenue | 5,804 | 6,046 | 6,333 | 6,738 | 5,972 | 6,211 | 6,335 | 6,462 | 6,591 | 6,723 | 6,857 |
% Growth | 15.2% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 6.4% | -11.4% | 4.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
EBITDA | 3,068 | 3,529 | 3,726 | 4,012 | 3,913 | 3,646 | 3,719 | 3,793 | 3,869 | 3,947 | 4,025 |
% of Revenue | 52.9% | 58.4% | 58.8% | 59.5% | 65.5% | 58.7% | 58.7% | 58.7% | 58.7% | 58.7% | 58.7% |
Calculation of Free Cash Flow | |||||||||||
Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | |||||||||||
(EUR in millions) | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 | |
EBITDA | 3,529 | 3,726 | 4,012 | 3,913 | 3,646 | 3,719 | 3,793 | 3,869 | 3,947 | 4,025 | |
Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
D&A | (511) | (532) | (606) | (554) | (153) | (156) | (159) | (162) | (166) | (169) | |
EBIT | 3,018 | 3,194 | 3,406 | 3,359 | 3,493 | 3,563 | 3,634 | 3,707 | 3,781 | 3,857 | |
Pro forma Taxes | (785) | (831) | (886) | (873) | (908) | (926) | (945) | (964) | (983) | (1,003) | |
NOPAT | 2,132 | 2,233 | 2,364 | 2,520 | 2,486 | 2,585 | 2,637 | 2,689 | 2,743 | 2,798 | 2,854 |
Capital Expenditures | (58) | (335) | (352) | (407) | (448) | (466) | (440) | (449) | (452) | (447) | (449) |
NWC Investment | (418) | (132) | (157) | (221) | 417 | (130) | (68) | (69) | (70) | (72) | (73) |
(+) D&A | 188 | 511 | 532 | 606 | 554 | 153 | 156 | 159 | 162 | 166 | 169 |
Free Cash Flow | 1,844 | 2,278 | 2,387 | 2,499 | 3,009 | 2,141 | 2,285 | 2,330 | 2,383 | 2,445 | 2,500 |
% Growth | 24% | 5% | 5% | 20% | -29% | 7% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 2% |