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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Discount Rate | 8.5% - 7.5% | 8.0% |
Terminal EBITDA Multiple | 17.4x - 19.4x | 18.4x |
Fair Value | €260.60 - €304.98 | €282.05 |
Upside | -37.1% - -26.3% | -31.9% |
Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | |||||||||||
(USD in millions) | Input Projections | ||||||||||
Fiscal Years Ending | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
Revenue | 3,121 | 3,392 | 3,587 | 3,816 | 3,962 | 4,465 | 4,800 | 4,968 | 5,067 | 5,169 | 5,272 |
% Growth | 9.7% | 8.7% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 3.8% | 12.7% | 7.5% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
EBITDA | 682 | 749 | 798 | 861 | 914 | 850 | 937 | 970 | 989 | 1,009 | 1,029 |
% of Revenue | 21.9% | 22.1% | 22.3% | 22.6% | 23.1% | 19.0% | 19.5% | 19.5% | 19.5% | 19.5% | 19.5% |
Calculation of Free Cash Flow | |||||||||||
Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | |||||||||||
(USD in millions) | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 | |
EBITDA | 749 | 798 | 861 | 914 | 850 | 937 | 970 | 989 | 1,009 | 1,029 | |
Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
D&A | (122) | (127) | (124) | (118) | (189) | (203) | (210) | (214) | (218) | (223) | |
EBIT | 627 | 671 | 736 | 796 | 661 | 735 | 760 | 775 | 791 | 807 | |
Pro forma Taxes | (151) | (161) | (177) | (191) | (159) | (176) | (182) | (186) | (190) | (194) | |
NOPAT | 437 | 477 | 510 | 559 | 605 | 502 | 558 | 578 | 589 | 601 | 613 |
Capital Expenditures | (61) | (75) | (68) | (72) | (67) | (75) | (71) | (71) | (72) | (72) | (72) |
NWC Investment | (53) | (52) | (37) | (44) | (28) | (96) | (64) | (32) | (19) | (19) | (20) |
(+) D&A | 108 | 122 | 127 | 124 | 118 | 189 | 203 | 210 | 214 | 218 | 223 |
Free Cash Flow | 431 | 472 | 532 | 568 | 628 | 520 | 626 | 684 | 712 | 728 | 744 |
% Growth | 10% | 13% | 7% | 10% | -17% | 20% | 9% | 4% | 2% | 2% |