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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Discount Rate | 8.0% - 7.0% | 7.5% |
| Perpetuity Growth Rate | 2.8% - 3.8% | 3.3% |
| Fair Value | €35.72 - €53.70 | €42.60 |
| Upside | 0.3% - 50.8% | 19.6% |
| Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | |||||||
| (JPY in millions) | Input Projections | ||||||
| Fiscal Years Ending | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | |
| Revenue | 1,170,611 | 1,230,000 | 1,282,200 | 1,372,800 | 1,402,000 | 1,482,000 | |
| % Growth | 5.3% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 7.1% | 2.1% | 5.7% | |
| EBITDA | 573,668 | 623,600 | 640,700 | 695,000 | 707,000 | 752,500 | |
| % of Revenue | 49.0% | 50.7% | 50.0% | 50.6% | 50.4% | 50.8% | |
| Calculation of Free Cash Flow | |||||||
| Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | |||||||
| (JPY in millions) | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Terminal | |
| EBITDA | 623,600 | 640,700 | 695,000 | 707,000 | 752,500 | 752,500 | |
| Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 35,190 | 54,579 | 48,651 | 53,128 | 53,128 | |
| D&A | (30,400) | (31,690) | (33,929) | (34,651) | (36,628) | (64,813) | |
| EBIT | 593,200 | 644,200 | 715,650 | 721,000 | 769,000 | 740,815 | |
| Pro forma Taxes | (166,096) | (180,376) | (200,382) | (201,880) | (215,320) | (207,428) | |
| NOPAT | 390,242 | 427,104 | 463,824 | 515,268 | 519,120 | 553,680 | 533,387 |
| Capital Expenditures | (50,415) | (75,000) | (69,286) | (67,687) | (67,450) | (68,224) | (68,224) |
| NWC Investment | (17,515) | (17,558) | (15,433) | (26,785) | (8,633) | (23,651) | (14,240) |
| (+) D&A | 31,665 | 30,400 | 31,690 | 33,929 | 34,651 | 36,628 | 64,813 |
| Free Cash Flow | 353,977 | 364,946 | 410,796 | 454,725 | 477,688 | 498,433 | 515,736 |
| % Growth | 3% | 13% | 11% | 5% | 4% | 3% | |