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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Discount Rate | 8.0% - 7.0% | 7.5% |
| Perpetuity Growth Rate | 3.0% - 4.0% | 3.5% |
| Fair Value | €31.41 - €45.92 | €36.88 |
| Upside | -20.7% - 15.9% | -6.9% |
| Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | ||||||||||||
| (JPY in millions) | Input Projections | |||||||||||
| Fiscal Years Ending | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 | |
| Revenue | 1,170,611 | 1,221,650 | 1,235,073 | 1,341,100 | 1,403,500 | 1,483,500 | 1,516,000 | 1,554,000 | 1,493,000 | 1,500,000 | 1,454,500 | |
| % Growth | 5.3% | 4.4% | 1.1% | 8.6% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 2.2% | 2.5% | -3.9% | 0.5% | -3.0% | |
| EBITDA | 573,668 | 623,900 | 624,000 | 692,050 | 702,000 | 747,000 | 792,000 | 818,000 | 815,500 | 829,500 | 751,000 | |
| % of Revenue | 49.0% | 51.1% | 50.5% | 51.6% | 50.0% | 50.4% | 52.2% | 52.6% | 54.6% | 55.3% | 51.6% | |
| Calculation of Free Cash Flow | ||||||||||||
| Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | ||||||||||||
| (JPY in millions) | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 | Terminal | |
| EBITDA | 623,900 | 624,000 | 692,050 | 702,000 | 747,000 | 792,000 | 818,000 | 815,500 | 829,500 | 751,000 | 751,000 | |
| Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22,082 | 28,071 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| D&A | (30,225) | (11,500) | (8,200) | (8,582) | (9,071) | (9,269) | (9,502) | (9,129) | (9,172) | (8,893) | (60,149) | |
| EBIT | 593,676 | 612,500 | 683,850 | 715,500 | 766,000 | 782,731 | 808,498 | 806,371 | 820,328 | 742,107 | 690,851 | |
| Pro forma Taxes | (166,229) | (171,500) | (191,478) | (200,340) | (214,480) | (219,165) | (226,380) | (225,784) | (229,692) | (207,790) | (193,438) | |
| NOPAT | 390,242 | 427,446 | 441,000 | 492,372 | 515,160 | 551,520 | 563,566 | 582,119 | 580,587 | 590,636 | 534,317 | 497,412 |
| Capital Expenditures | (50,415) | (75,000) | (68,965) | (67,364) | (67,450) | (67,914) | (67,576) | (67,646) | (64,991) | (65,296) | (63,315) | (63,315) |
| NWC Investment | (18,564) | (15,993) | (4,206) | (33,223) | (19,553) | (25,068) | (10,184) | (11,907) | 19,114 | (2,193) | 14,257 | (15,952) |
| (+) D&A | 31,665 | 30,225 | 11,500 | 8,200 | 8,582 | 9,071 | 9,269 | 9,502 | 9,129 | 9,172 | 8,893 | 60,149 |
| Free Cash Flow | 352,928 | 366,678 | 379,329 | 399,985 | 436,739 | 467,610 | 495,076 | 512,067 | 543,839 | 532,319 | 494,152 | 478,295 |
| % Growth | 4% | 3% | 5% | 9% | 7% | 6% | 3% | 6% | -2% | -7% | -3% | |