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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Discount Rate | 9.8% - 8.8% | 9.3% |
Terminal EBITDA Multiple | 10.7x - 12.7x | 11.7x |
Fair Value | €33.76 - €43.96 | €38.69 |
Upside | 19.6% - 55.7% | 37.0% |
Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | |||||||||||
(USD in millions) | Input Projections | ||||||||||
Fiscal Years Ending | Jul-24 | Jul-25 | Jul-26 | Jul-27 | Jul-28 | Jul-29 | Jul-30 | Jul-31 | Jul-32 | Jul-33 | Jul-34 |
Revenue | 9,636 | 10,272 | 10,072 | 10,217 | 10,514 | 10,905 | 11,123 | 11,346 | 11,573 | 11,804 | 12,040 |
% Growth | 3.0% | 6.6% | -1.9% | 1.4% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
EBITDA | 1,783 | 1,924 | 1,872 | 1,912 | 2,005 | 2,180 | 2,224 | 2,268 | 2,314 | 2,360 | 2,407 |
% of Revenue | 18.5% | 18.7% | 18.6% | 18.7% | 19.1% | 20.0% | 20.0% | 20.0% | 20.0% | 20.0% | 20.0% |
Calculation of Free Cash Flow | |||||||||||
Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | |||||||||||
(USD in millions) | Jul-25 | Jul-26 | Jul-27 | Jul-28 | Jul-29 | Jul-30 | Jul-31 | Jul-32 | Jul-33 | Jul-34 | |
EBITDA | 1,924 | 1,872 | 1,912 | 2,005 | 2,180 | 2,224 | 2,268 | 2,314 | 2,360 | 2,407 | |
Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
D&A | (447) | (447) | (429) | (390) | (264) | (270) | (275) | (280) | (286) | (292) | |
EBIT | 1,477 | 1,426 | 1,483 | 1,615 | 1,916 | 1,954 | 1,993 | 2,033 | 2,074 | 2,115 | |
Pro forma Taxes | (355) | (342) | (356) | (388) | (460) | (469) | (478) | (488) | (498) | (508) | |
NOPAT | 1,063 | 1,123 | 1,083 | 1,127 | 1,227 | 1,456 | 1,485 | 1,515 | 1,545 | 1,576 | 1,608 |
Capital Expenditures | (517) | (464) | (485) | (488) | (481) | (497) | (488) | (489) | (491) | (489) | (490) |
NWC Investment | (4) | (8) | 3 | (2) | (4) | (5) | (3) | (3) | (3) | (3) | (3) |
(+) D&A | 384 | 447 | 447 | 429 | 390 | 264 | 270 | 275 | 280 | 286 | 292 |
Free Cash Flow | 927 | 1,097 | 1,048 | 1,066 | 1,133 | 1,219 | 1,264 | 1,298 | 1,331 | 1,370 | 1,407 |
% Growth | 18% | -4% | 2% | 6% | 8% | 4% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 3% |