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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 9.1x - 10.1x | 9.6x |
Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 9.3x - 10.3x | 9.8x |
Fair Value | €0.017 - €0.11 | €0.065 |
Upside | -81.7% - 22.0% | -29.9% |
Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
China Longyuan Power Group Corporation Limited | 916 | SEHK:916 |
China Resources Power Holdings Company Limited | 836 | SEHK:836 |
China Renewable Energy Investment Limited | 987 | SEHK:987 |
China Power International Development Limited | 2380 | SEHK:2380 |
Veolia Environnement SA | VEOE.F | OTCPK:VEOE.F |
China Everbright Greentech Limited | CK7 | DB:CK7 |
- | - | - |
Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
Benchmark Companies | |||||||
916 | 836 | 987 | 2380 | VEOE.F | CK7 | ||
SEHK:916 | SEHK:836 | SEHK:987 | SEHK:2380 | OTCPK:VEOE.F | DB:CK7 | ||
Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
5Y CAGR | 7.5% | 9.1% | -4.5% | 19.4% | 12.4% | -5.1% | |
3Y CAGR | 2.2% | 23.0% | -19.2% | 33.9% | 21.7% | -7.2% | |
Latest Twelve Months | 0.2% | 9.2% | -13.9% | 40.1% | -1.0% | 1.9% | |
Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
5 Year Average Margin | 67.6% | 31.7% | 70.4% | 36.8% | 11.5% | 30.7% | |
Prior Fiscal Year | 82.4% | 33.7% | 67.4% | 39.5% | 12.0% | 28.9% | |
Latest Fiscal Year | 79.8% | 36.1% | 64.5% | 45.4% | 12.5% | 31.3% | |
Latest Twelve Months | 83.7% | 36.1% | 64.5% | 45.4% | 12.3% | 31.3% | |
Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
EV / LTM Revenue | 8.13x | 2.65x | 2.05x | 4.51x | 0.93x | 3.03x | |
EV / LTM EBITDA | 9.7x | 7.3x | 3.2x | 9.9x | 7.5x | 9.7x | |
EV / LTM EBIT | 18.2x | 12.6x | 44.0x | 20.6x | 12.8x | 16.2x | |
Low | Mid | High | |||||
Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | 3.2x | 7.5x | 9.9x | ||||
Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | 5.8x | 9.7x | 10.2x | ||||
Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 9.1x | 9.6x | 10.1x | ||||
(x) LTM EBITDA | 2,185 | 2,185 | 2,185 | ||||
(=) Implied Enterprise Value | 19,903 | 20,951 | 21,998 | ||||
(-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (19,262) | (19,262) | (19,262) | ||||
(=) Equity Value | 641 | 1,688 | 2,736 | ||||
(/) Shares Outstanding | 2,356.8 | 2,356.8 | 2,356.8 | ||||
Implied Value Range | 0.27 | 0.72 | 1.16 | ||||
FX Rate: HKD/EUR | 9.2 | 9.2 | 9.2 | Market Price | |||
Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 0.03 | 0.08 | 0.13 | 0.09 | |||
Upside / (Downside) | -67.8% | -15.3% | 37.3% |
Equity Waterfall | |||||||
Benchmark Companies | |||||||
(in millions) | 916 | 836 | 987 | 2380 | VEOE.F | CK7 | |
Enterprise Value | 241,105 | 279,291 | (426) | 259,760 | 41,476 | 21,256 | |
(+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 3,402 | 5,834 | 232 | 10,213 | 9,461 | 1,660 | |
(+) Investments & Other | 6,551 | 22,324 | 759 | 16,081 | 2,832 | 258 | |
(-) Debt | (132,008) | (194,156) | (228) | (197,467) | (30,083) | (21,028) | |
(-) Other Liabilities | (13,184) | (10,114) | 10 | (52,635) | (2,234) | (152) | |
(-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
(-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Value of Common Equity | 105,864 | 103,179 | 348 | 35,952 | 21,452 | 1,993 | |
(/) Shares Outstanding | 16,406.7 | 5,177.1 | 2,506.2 | 12,370.2 | 718.2 | 2,356.8 | |
Implied Stock Price | 6.45 | 19.93 | 0.14 | 2.91 | 29.87 | 0.85 | |
FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 0.91 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.91 | 0.85 | 9.19 | |
Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 7.06 | 19.93 | 0.14 | 3.18 | 34.98 | 0.09 | |
Trading Currency | HKD | HKD | HKD | HKD | USD | EUR | |
FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 0.91 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.91 | 0.85 | 9.19 |