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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Discount Rate | 8.5% - 7.5% | 8.0% |
Terminal EBITDA Multiple | 5.7x - 7.7x | 6.7x |
Fair Value | €2.63 - €3.14 | €2.87 |
Upside | 39.9% - 67.1% | 53.0% |
Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | |||||||||||
(GBP in millions) | Input Projections | ||||||||||
Fiscal Years Ending | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
Revenue | 19,913 | 23,538 | 22,880 | 21,302 | 19,145 | 16,871 | 16,871 | 16,871 | 16,871 | 16,871 | 16,871 |
% Growth | -24.7% | 18.2% | -2.8% | -6.9% | -10.1% | -11.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
EBITDA | 5,931 | 1,503 | 1,426 | 1,424 | 1,493 | 1,580 | 1,580 | 1,580 | 1,580 | 1,580 | 1,580 |
% of Revenue | 29.8% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 9.4% | 9.4% | 9.4% | 9.4% | 9.4% | 9.4% |
Calculation of Free Cash Flow | |||||||||||
Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | |||||||||||
(GBP in millions) | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 | |
EBITDA | 1,503 | 1,426 | 1,424 | 1,493 | 1,580 | 1,580 | 1,580 | 1,580 | 1,580 | 1,580 | |
Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
D&A | (570) | (485) | (447) | (490) | (473) | (473) | (473) | (473) | (473) | (473) | |
EBIT | 934 | 941 | 977 | 1,003 | 1,107 | 1,107 | 1,107 | 1,107 | 1,107 | 1,107 | |
Pro forma Taxes | (252) | (254) | (264) | (271) | (299) | (299) | (299) | (299) | (299) | (299) | |
NOPAT | 4,115 | 681 | 687 | 713 | 732 | 808 | 808 | 808 | 808 | 808 | 808 |
Capital Expenditures | (380) | (754) | (784) | (969) | (900) | (700) | (700) | (700) | (700) | (700) | (700) |
NWC Investment | (51) | 28 | (5) | (12) | (17) | (18) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
(+) D&A | 294 | 570 | 485 | 447 | 490 | 473 | 473 | 473 | 473 | 473 | 473 |
Free Cash Flow | 3,978 | 525 | 383 | 179 | 305 | 563 | 581 | 581 | 581 | 581 | 581 |
% Growth | -87% | -27% | -53% | 71% | 84% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |