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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Discount Rate | 8.8% - 7.8% | 8.3% |
Terminal EBITDA Multiple | 14.7x - 16.7x | 15.7x |
Fair Value | €183.31 - €213.56 | €197.93 |
Upside | -8.8% - 6.2% | -1.5% |
Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | |||||||||||
(USD in millions) | Input Projections | ||||||||||
Fiscal Years Ending | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
Revenue | 4,095 | 2,297 | 2,388 | 2,530 | 2,683 | 2,837 | 2,936 | 2,995 | 3,055 | 3,116 | 3,178 |
% Growth | 8.5% | -43.9% | 3.9% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
EBITDA | 1,306 | 1,505 | 1,562 | 1,663 | 1,761 | 1,876 | 1,942 | 1,980 | 2,020 | 2,061 | 2,102 |
% of Revenue | 31.9% | 65.5% | 65.4% | 65.7% | 65.6% | 66.1% | 66.1% | 66.1% | 66.1% | 66.1% | 66.1% |
Calculation of Free Cash Flow | |||||||||||
Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | |||||||||||
(USD in millions) | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 | |
EBITDA | 1,505 | 1,562 | 1,663 | 1,761 | 1,876 | 1,942 | 1,980 | 2,020 | 2,061 | 2,102 | |
Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
D&A | (59) | (64) | (72) | (68) | (70) | (72) | (74) | (75) | (77) | (78) | |
EBIT | 1,446 | 1,498 | 1,591 | 1,693 | 1,806 | 1,869 | 1,907 | 1,945 | 1,984 | 2,023 | |
Pro forma Taxes | (463) | (479) | (509) | (542) | (578) | (598) | (610) | (622) | (635) | (647) | |
NOPAT | 804 | 983 | 1,019 | 1,082 | 1,151 | 1,228 | 1,271 | 1,296 | 1,322 | 1,349 | 1,376 |
Capital Expenditures | (61) | (76) | (83) | (69) | (96) | (102) | (89) | (91) | (93) | (91) | (91) |
NWC Investment | (5) | 30 | (2) | (2) | (3) | (3) | (2) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) |
(+) D&A | 123 | 59 | 64 | 72 | 68 | 70 | 72 | 74 | 75 | 77 | 78 |
Free Cash Flow | 861 | 997 | 998 | 1,082 | 1,121 | 1,193 | 1,253 | 1,279 | 1,304 | 1,334 | 1,362 |
% Growth | 16% | 0% | 8% | 4% | 6% | 5% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 2% |